金色早报 | 俄罗斯和加拿大可能成为新的加密矿业避风港

最高法院长:加强区块链等技术在执行工作中的运用;山东启动“智慧矫正”建设试点工作,将运用区块链等技术全面改造传统社区矫正工作;已有220多家银行加入摩根大通银行间信息网络(IIN);区块链转账比传统金融系统快388倍 成本低127倍;韩国加密投资者平均投资693万韩元 较去年增加64%;

【言论】 河南省科学院院长:区块链是“信息互联网”迈向“信任互联网”的颠覆性技术

◇金色盘面

据huobi global数据显示,BTC最近成交价36447.16元,24小时变化+0.33% ;

ETH最近成交价1169.24 元,24小时变化 +0.45%;

BCH最近成交价1993.88元,24小时变化 +1.47%

EOS最近成交价36.01元,24小时变化+1.38%


◇政策新闻 

1、最高法院长:加强区块链等技术在执行工作中的运用

据北青报消息,在4月21日举行的第十三届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第十次会议第二次全体会议上,最高人民法院院长周强提到,进一步加强执行信息化建设,加强大数据、云计算、人工智能、区块链等技术在执行工作中的运用,让现代信息技术更好服务保障执行工作。

点评:从北、广、杭三家互联网法院,到司法区块链、天平链……区块链技术在司法存证与确权等场景的应用落地与日俱增。

2、山东启动“智慧矫正”建设试点工作,将运用区块链等技术全面改造传统社区矫正工作

据大众日报消息,近日,省司法厅印发《全省“智慧矫正”建设试点工作实施方案》。据了解,“智慧矫正”建设试点以社区矫正数字化、网络化、智能化发展为主线,充分运用互联网、云计算、物联网、大数据、人工智能、区块链等现代信息技术对传统社区矫正工作进行全方位、全角度、全过程的改造,为实现社区矫正工作跨越式发展提供有力支撑。

点评:自区块链技术被国务院写入《“十三五”国家信息化规划》后,山东在区块链方面的探索也逐步推行,仅4月中旬,就落地揭牌了“区块链技术应用实践基地”,并将区块链技术应用到寿光市重点农业园区实现追溯。


◇区块链  

1、已有220多家银行加入摩根大通银行间信息网络(IIN)

据英国金融时报报道,摩根大通全球清算业务主管John Hunter表示,目前已有220多家银行签署了最初的服务协议,允许通过网络共享支付数据,以便迅速解决错误。IIN的扩张使银行能够在一个相互可访问的分类账上共享信息。该平台已经允许银行快速解决可能导致付款延迟数周的合规问题。该系统将在第三季度投入使用,用于国内和国际支付,不过摩根大通预计,该系统将更适用于错误率较高的国际支付。IIN还为金融技术人员设立了一个沙箱,让他们利用网络“开发和发布应用程序”。摩根大通预计将于第三季度推出的测试环境,将为开发人员提供安全消息传递、文档文件传输和数据建模等构建模块。

点评:IIN是由摩根大通提供的第一种实时区块链服务,IIN于2017年启动试点,旨在最大限度地减少全球支付过程中的痛点,让款项以更快的速度、更少的步骤抵达收款方。IIN由Quorum®驱动,Quorum是由摩根大通开发、以太坊许可的区块链变体。金色财经2019年3月1日曾报道,摩根大通正讨论替代Ripple的方案(IIN),已有185家银行注册。

2、区块链转账比传统金融系统快388倍 成本低127倍

据Brave Newcoin报道,BlockData的一份新报告称,区块链转账比传统金融系统快388倍,成本低127倍。报告称,全球汇款行业规模庞大,每天都有数十亿美元的交易。根据世界银行编制的一份报告,2017年全球汇款额已增至6130亿美元,比2016年的5730亿美元增长了7%,创造了新的记录。尽管全球汇款行业规模庞大,但同时也面临着很多挑战。在很大程度上,跨境转账速度缓慢、成本高昂,并且由于全球金融监管规定(其中许多与反洗钱有关),金融机构在处理此类支付时需要履行各项法规,这些过程需要花费不少时间。

点评:跨境汇款也已然成为区块链技术的一大应用场景,就如报告所称,为了充分利用区块链技术的优势来解决传统金融机构存在的不足,企业家们正在为全球汇款行业创建基于区块链的解决方案,利用区块链技术或加密货币的汇款公司数量在过去十年中稳步增长。另外,传统企业亦有兴趣采用区块链技术来改善其服务。


◇加密货币 

1、韩国加密投资者平均投资693万韩元 较去年增加64%

64岁年龄区间的2530人进行一项调查,其结果显示,韩国人均加密货币投资金额达到693万韩元,较前一年(422万韩元)增加了64.2%,特别是40~60岁投资者的投资金额增加了约2倍。该财团分析称,加密货币价格下降导致投资者期待反弹,进行补仓。投资加密货币的比例是7.4%,比前一年(6.4%)有所上升。不愿意投资加密货币的原因则有:黑客攻击等安全风险(41.2%)、价格波动太高(33.3%)、使用方法过于复杂(10.8%)。

点评:地理位置相邻、政府开放态度以及投资市场开放度与成熟度高,韩国成为中国项目出海的首选之一。就在三月份,韩国国会首次提出了一项促进区块链产业的法案,法案包括建立区块链技术研究基础,培养专业人才并对初创企业进行支援等内容。韩国政府看到了区块链带来的新机遇,随着产业的进一步规范和扶植政策的推出,区块链将在韩国得到进一步发展。

2、eToro高级市场经理:俄罗斯和加拿大可能成为新的加密矿业避风港

据AMB Crypto报道,许多人把目光投向东方寻找新的加密矿业避风港,但eToro的高级市场经理马蒂•格林斯潘(Mati Greenspan)却否定了这一观点。格林斯潘在接受采访时强调了两个关键原因,这两个原因将成为加密货币矿商的主要因素:首先,国家必须积累相当程度的“廉价可再生能源”,其次,国家的立法和态度应该“对加密友好”。格林斯潘认为,加拿大和俄罗斯将承担起这一重任。

点评:在格林斯潘看来,“最大的两个国家是加拿大和俄罗斯,它们最近的采矿活动都有显著增长。” 格林斯潘引用了《华尔街日报》的一篇文章,文章称,比特币开采可以“通过互联网将能源货币化”,使用废弃的天然气生产比特币。


 ◇重要经济动向

招银国际:全球经济步入“微妙时刻”

全球经济前景黯淡无阻股市反弹。全球经济同步持续放慢,主要受美国的周期性经济放缓、贸易保护主义、中国经济结构调整以及欧洲政策不明朗因素影响。相比之下,全球股市以近数十年来最快步伐收复失地,在2018年下半年陷入困境后出现V型反弹。世界经济正处于“微妙时刻”,这是国际货币基金组织对目前全球经济状态的判断。我们认为,全球政策转变大幅改善投资者情绪,促使股市自今年年初以来持续上升,但也要对于经济的下行风险给予足够重视。


 ◇金色百科  

加密货币交易回滚: 一般来说,就是中心服务器地址告诉某种币,只有这一种数据才是对的,其它都是错误的。一旦这种币的客户端接受到这样的信息,那么无论服务器发送给你的数据包是否正确,都会按照这种数据来执行。
此外,传统数据库领域的回滚只能在commit(提交)前才会起作用,它的执行将意味着在回滚之前的某个或全部的操作无效,在正式commit数据之后则应无法rollback。但是,加密货币领域的回滚,则无时无刻都可以发挥效果。

两个月上涨近300%,领先众多主流币,是时候认识一下BAT了

文 | 林中路

出品 | 火星财经(ID:hxcj24h)

Basic Attenion Token团队近期动作频频,这是很久没有出现的景象了。不仅它所开发的基于区块链技术的Brave浏览器撬动了洛杉矶时报和My Crypto,使它们成为自己的验证内容发行商,而且BAT Community.org也上线了。它在加密世界里的版图正在扩张。

相应地,代币BAT的价格收获了不小的涨幅,而且截至目前并没有止步的意思——根据Etherscan.io提供的数据,截至4月20日, BAT的价格最高触及0.435美元,与其2017年5月31日的ICO发行价相比,增长达到935.57%。

即便是距其在2月7日创下的0.1016美元的历史最低点,上涨幅度也高达300%以上。而从其链上数据来看,BAT的转账金额、转账数量3月以来也逐渐变得活跃起来,独立地址数量也保持了较高的增长水平。

BAT的历史价格趋势、链上转账数据趋势以及用户地址数据;图片来源:Etherscan.io

虽然价格的上涨可能受到整体市筑底反弹的影响,但是即便是放在市值前50的主流币当中,BAT的表现都是可圈可点的——目前,BAT总市值达到5.45亿美元,全球排名第22——按它的涨势,挤掉第20位的ONT和第21位的NEM,似乎一步之遥。

为什么BAT会在短时间内快速修复并获得如此强劲的涨势,它是一个值得继续关注的币种吗?它的长期上涨是否有更为坚实的支撑?要回答这些,我们不妨从它要解决的问题、它所提出的解决方案以及它在扩张中所面临的竞争障碍来看待这个问题。首先,我们从它致力于解决的大问题——在线广告长期以来的浪费和无效说起。

在线广告的难题

“我知道我的广告费有一半是被浪费的,但我不知道究竟是哪一半。”

很难想像,约翰·沃纳梅克(John Wanamaker)100年前发出的感叹在今天依然有效,而且愈演愈烈。

互联网技术曾经给广告从业者们带来了希望,消除沃纳梅克式的抱怨。它让更高匹配度的受众、更具效率的投放、更易于监测的数据指标成为可能,更好的投放效果也因此顺理成章。但实际上,情况虽有改善,但梦想中的情况和现实的距离却越来越远:广告支出逐年增加,广告主和品牌商的抱怨却并没有减少,与此同时,广告发行商的收入被大量蚕食,用户也感受到了被冒犯。

▶广告主:广告预算和实际广告支出在逐年增加,为什么销售增长和品牌曝光的效果却越来越差?代理商反馈给我的数据是真实的吗?

广告发行商:作为中间人真的很难。眼看着广告市场规模在不断增加,而我的收入规模却没有同步增长,甚至还有所下滑……另一方面,我的用户也向我抱怨,怎么给他推送了那么多的广告?他们怀疑,我是不是侵犯了他们的隐私?

▶用户:XXX APP的体验越来越差了。打开速度越来越慢,而且经常给我一些莫名其妙的推荐(他是不是偷偷记录了我的用户数据?)……唉,这个月的手机流量又要超了!

技术进步本来应该带来一个多方共赢的机会,但现在,技术的优势反而变成了技术的“黑洞”。造成这一切的起因在于,广告市场上越来越多的中间商。IAB Arena描绘了具有六个环的广告生态系统,充分说明了广告业的复杂性:

媒体策划与购买、内容创作者、媒体供应商、广告执行技术、媒体增强、商业智能,这六大领域围绕着“品牌”这一内核向外逐层扩展,每一层都包含了大量细分领域的中间商。

IAB广告行业生态系统;图片来源:marketingland.com

与此相对应的是,传统数字广告复杂的流动过程:

用户(visitor)和广告主(marketer)中间隔着发行商(website)、广告供给方平台(SSP)、广告交易平台(Ad exchange)、广告需求方平台(DSP)。当用户访问一家网站时,网站会向SSP发出广告请求,与此同时用户的个人数据也会同步发送给SSP,经过SSP的匹配后,需求进步传导到广告交易平台,另一端掌握广告主数据的DSP们再按照匹配性的原则参与广告竞标,最后的赢家将代表广告主向网站投放广告——最终,用户在这个网站上看到了来自某个广告主或品牌商的广告。 

传统在线广告的流动,图片来源:The Econimist

正是这些大量的中间商和复杂的流程,让数据变得不透明和难以审计,广告欺诈和流量劫持变成了普遍存在的现象。仅广告欺诈一项,每年全球广告主面临的损失都在百亿美元以上:Juniper Research的研究表明,2017年全球品牌商因“欺诈”带来的广告损失高达142亿美元,占当年全球广告市场规模的10%以上;该机构同时预测,到2020年,欺诈损失可能达到440亿美元。

与此同时,用户的体验度下降,个人隐私和数据也暴露在了风险当中。

Basic Attention Token的解决方案技术并非是广告业效率低下的元凶。广告业需要更有效的技术,而不是让技术人为地成为吞噬广告主预算,发行商利润和用户时间、精力、金钱的黑洞。Basic Attention Token团队的尝试由此展开了。

这只由Java Script(最著名的和广泛使用的计算机脚本语言之一)之父、Mozilla基金会和火狐浏览器联合创始人带队的精英团队把区块链作为了解决方案的技术核心,而所有的变革的起点则始于用户“注意力”的重新度量和价值发现与分配。

基于区块链去中心化、可追溯、不可篡改、透明、高度隐私的特点,BAT希望对用户的注意力进行公允地度量,并创建一个全新的在线广告市场:

数据透明与可审计:可以有效度量的广告投入和广告收益。

隐私保护:侵犯用户隐私的行为和恶意广告将会得到抑制。

利益重新分配:发行商(以及他背后的创作者们)和用户都能分享利益。而不是让广告业日渐增长的市场规模流向越来越多的中间商和网络欺诈、流量劫持等黑洞里。

每一个巨大的改变都是对广告业现存问题的重重一击。

广告主可以追溯到数据的真实性、有效性因而可以更好的预估广告的效果和投放预算,从而避免了浪费;因为中间商的数量大大减少(甚至完全被消除了),流向发行商的收入也将会增加,同时发行商也消除了收集和使用用户数据、隐私的嫌疑;用户不再仅仅是注意力的消耗者,而且也可以通过分配自己的注意力获得收入。 

Basic Attention Token团队希望借助Brave浏览器和BAT代币创建一个让广告客户、发行商、用户供应的解决方案,图片来源:Brave.org

为了实现这些目标,Basic Attention Token的解决方案包含两个密不可分的部分,一个是Brave浏览器,另一个则是最近两个月来大放异彩的ERC-20代币“BAT”。

▶Brave浏览器:作为一个快速、开源、以隐私为导向的浏览器,Brave要构建的是一个透明的广告交易平台。对标已经被广泛使用的谷歌Chrome、苹果Safari,Brave连接发行商、用户、广告主,可以做到在保护用户隐私的情况下精确度量用户的注意力(团队因此创建了名为BAM的注意力度量系统)。同时,Brave去除了第三方跟踪器和中间人,消除了数据泄露、恶意软件以及过度收费的风险。 

现有广告生态系统 VS Basic Attention Token构建的广告生态系统,图片来源:BAT白皮书

BAT:既是广告主支付广告费用的媒介,也是用户消费内容、获得注意力奖励的媒介,同时也是发行商向内容创作者付款的媒介。

BAT推动了整个广告生态系统有效率地运转起来。在注意力可被度量的情况下,广告主依据用户的关注度为发行商支付BAT形式的广告费用;发行商依据关注度为内容创作者支付创作费用;使用Brave浏览器的用户也可以获得相应的代币奖励,他们既可以将BAT捐赠内容创作者,也可以在Brave的平台上使用,比如购买数字商品。而在Basic Attention Token团队的规划里,BAT将来还会对接更为广泛的使用场景,比如游戏、娱乐等等。

特别值得注意的是,对于发行商和内容创作者而言,BAT的引入和广泛使用有可能对它们的商业模式产生影响在传统的付费订阅缺乏灵活性而对于用户吸引力越来越微弱的情况下,BAT或将基于用户注意力的准确度量带来新的内容收费模式。比如,用户可以按照喜欢的程度针对特定的内容付费。

此外,媒体互动形式也可能发生改变,比如利用BAT代币进行投票、点赞或者评论,既可以验证投票人的真实性,也可以减轻滥用投票或者评论的现象。

动了谁的奶酪?Brave的竞争对手们

根据eMarketer提供的数据,2019年全球范围内的在线广告支出有望达到3723亿美元的水平,阿里巴巴、谷歌、Facebook、腾讯、百度领先,其中谷歌的广告收入有望达到1024亿美元。当前的在线广告市场,正被这些巨头们牢牢把持着。

按Basic Attention Token的规划,“Brave将重新设计在线广告的WEB系统……其组件和协议将成为未来的WEB标准”——这意味着,Brave的目标是建立一套新的在线广告系统,这套系统很可能将与传统巨头们兵戎相对。 

2019年全在线广告领域排名前十的卖方,来源:eMarketer

但Brave有获胜的把握吗?

至少在现在,从根本上说,虽然面临这样那样的问题,旧的在线广告系统并没有完全失效。每年巨头们用于改进广告系统的新技术投入仍然在保持增长,而广告主们对于旧系统的依赖也并没有下降:人们总是倾向于熟悉的、得到验证的路径和方法。尽管Brave浏览器的全球用户规模在2018年底突破了2000万,月活用户达到550万(2018年年初约为100万),80%是移动端用户——这是一个良好的开端,但也凸显了挑战巨头们的不易。谷歌Chrome的全球用户量在2016年就已经超过了2亿。 

按市场份额计算,谷歌的Chrome是目前全球最受欢迎的浏览器,图片来源:Statista

既然正面“抢占”地盘存在难度,那就采用迂回的办法——目前,Brave正在做各种扩大市场份额的尝试:

1.积极与发行商、内容服务商建立合作关系,比如Dow Jones媒体集团、洛杉矶时报、First We Feast、Archive.org等,同时也不放弃发展独立内容创作者——截至2018年底,全球范围内Brave验证的内容发行商已经达到28000个,是2018年年初的7倍,多数活跃在Youtobe这样的平台上。


2.建立与品牌商的联系,如Town Square、Tap Network。其中借助Tap Network的力量,Brave将实现与25万品牌商的联系,其中不乏亚马逊、苹果这样的大客户;

3.与硬件厂商合作扩大装机量,如HTC,HTC区块连手机Exodus的默认内置浏览器就是Brave;

4.提供技术解决方案,连接更多由C端用户资源的公司和团体,如提供身份验证服务的Civic。

但这些远远不够。从根本上来说,合作伙伴愿意加入Brave的“试验”需要看到实实在在的成效,而据Cryptoslate披露,2017年即加入Brave战队尝试Brave所带来的全新的收入模式和用户体验模式的非营利在线数字图书馆机构Archive.org两年来的BAT总收入只有9000个,按照目前的市价计算,不超过5000美元——而Archive.org在Alex全球网站的排名是258位,每个月的访问量达到1亿人次。大致做一下换算,Brave带来的人均收入仅为0.000001美元,而谷歌和Facebook分别是2.8美元和7.2美元。

Basic Attention Token的未来

对于Basic Attention Token来说,Brave浏览器当前最大的挑战或许是,尽快找到推动其用户爆炸式增长的金手指,单靠目前的BAT激励系统被动式的发展广告主、发行商和用户是远远不够的。Archive.org过去2年来的试验已经说明,目前的激励根本算不上激动人心。

再回到Brave所主打的安全性和隐私上,虽然Facebook的数据泄密问题给公众敲响了警钟,使普通人的隐私意识有了空前的提高,但是,它并非一个特别诱人的点。“隐私风险在不被发现之前可能不算是风险,尽管它是真实存在的”——这种心理的存在,有可能阻碍人们出于隐私保护大规模将浏览器的使用习惯做一个迁移。

这些都可能导致Brave的增长没那么快。过慢的增长不仅意味着广告变现成为一个难题,而且意味着巨头们已经建立的在线广告护城河坚冰难以打破——Brave更可能是谷歌、Safari们的补充,而不是挑战者;与此同时,过慢的增长也可能使Brave暴露在后起的区块链同行崛起的风险中。在一个正在增长、正在打破常规新技术驱动的市场,有什么不可能呢?

这些都可能是BAT在未来达到更高的价格高度,进入长期上涨预期通道所绕不开的问题。

 本文旨在提供更多市场信息,不构成任何投资建议。

OKEx Bitcoin Derivatives Trading Volume Highest in March

This Market Analysis is brought to you by OKEx, for more insights visit their blog.

Even before the April breakout of Bitcoin (BTC), derivative Bitcoin markets saw strong volume during the month of March. According to CryptoCompare’s most recent exchange review, OKEx exchange traded $1.5 billion in average daily bitcoin derivative volume.

March Exchange Review Bitcoin volume

The above exchanges all benefit from being registered in more crypto-friendly jurisdictions and thus have fewer KYC requirements than more institution-focussed exchanges offering Bitcoin futures. The CME, a US registered exchange, offers such a highly regulated Bitcoin product – but the trading volume on this exchange is paltry (about $70 million daily) compared to OKEx, bitFlyer, and BitMEX, owing to the difficulty involved in being approved to trade on such platforms.

Bitcoin Market Outlook

Continuous retests (below, purple circles) of Bitcoin’s key $5,350 resistance zone seem to confirm the presence of an ascending triangle, a bullish pattern. There has not been sufficient volume, however, to punch through this key level.

This pattern still has all of April to play out. A retest of the bottom regions of the pattern, at $5,100 and above, would be normal and even likely after repeated small rejections during the latest attempt up. Volume was so weak on these movements that they could hardly even be called attempts.

Bitcoin market analysis

On the other hand, some chartists are recognizing the presence of a symmetrical triangle rather than an ascending triangle, with the top pole located at the top of the April 10 false breakout.

While these patterns are similar in that they are consolidating patterns, the former one is not inherently considered bullish whereas the latter one is.

Indeed, the price has been contained – barely – within this symmetrical triangle range. Bitcoin is currently on a downward leg within this structure and approaching key support at $5,180. This level marks the rough midpoint of the structure, and also the first regions of the rising support trend band (in green, below). Traders should watch the volume in the next few days, which may give clues as to BTC’s breakout direction.

Bitcoin price chart

Both of these consolidation patterns transpire toward the end of April, and in either case a long term bullish bias is suggested. We can say this because of Bitcoin’s dogged refusal to drop below $5,000, which is an impressive feat given the strength of the shocking April 2 breakout. A deeper retrace could have easily been accommodated without worry, anywhere above $4,500-600.

What’s more, a Golden Cross is impending within a matter of days – two or three – which is commonly thought of as a very bullish long term signal. However, seeing as this event has been priced into the market for a while already, it may not mean positive price action in the short or even medium term. A breakdown after a Golden Cross would not be impossible, especially if it were a temporary one.

Bitcoin (BTC) May Have Bottomed, But Crypto Could Still See A “Black Swan” Event

In the eyes of analysts across the board, Bitcoin (BTC) decidedly bottomed at $3,150. They cite the fact that at $3,150, BTC was down 85% from its all-time highs, which is where the crypto asset has bottomed in previous cycles, coupled with the idea that industry fundamentals are better than ever.

And so far, this call has been vindicated, as BTC now sits at a casual $5,300. However, some pundits fear that a so-called “black swan” event could still strike this market, forcing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to enter a freefall. Let’s take a look.

Why Crypto Could Head Lower From Here

Adamant Capital, an Alpha-seeking Bitcoin fund, recently released its latest report about the state of cryptocurrency markets. While the report, titled “Bitcoin in Heavy Accumulation,” had bullish undertones, its authors, which includes prominent analyst Tuur Demeester, weren’t remiss to not mention the cases for lower lows in this cycle.

Adamant’s researchers and partners gave three/four cases for a collapse to new lows in the coming months.

First, hacks or failures of exchanges and other infrastructure providers. While the unwinding of the 2013 rally was partially a result of natural cycles, some of the drawdown was catalyzed by the decimation of Mt. Gox, hacked for hundreds of thousands of BTC. Adamant postulates that if a similar event occurs in the coming six months, Bitcoin markets could see a negative demand shock.

Second, a macroeconomic crash. Although cryptocurrencies have been lauded as non-correlated assets to stocks, it was proposed that a collapse in traditional markets could create a situation similar to the “2008 paradox” of the value of gold falling by 30%, even as demand surged.

Last, a “secondary Bitcoin mining capitulation.” Adamant remarks that while miners have already capitulated in this cycle already, if BTC “drifts down” to $3,000, this capitulation could be replicated as miners go out of business en-masse.

Bitcoin Looks Hopeful

More likely than not, however, Bitcoin has bottomed. As reported by NewsBTC previously, the same report showed clear signs that BTC is in accumulation.

It was explained that the Bitcoin Unrealized Profit/Loss (BUPL) indicator, which aims to estimate how much BTC holders’ are cumulatively profiting or losing, is reading at $13 billion in the positive. If the indicator is adjusted for the approximate number of lost coins, however, BUPL currently reads at $3 billion — 3% — of unrealized losses.

While this doesn’t sound all too important, as the measure is lesser-known, as Adamant explains, the recent BUPL movements confirms that Bitcoin has exited a “capitulation” phase, entering into a stage of “hope” (and fear). It is important to note that when BTC exited the “capitulation” phase during 2014 to 2016’s cycle, there was strong BUPL uptick, as we are experiencing now due to Bitcoin’s recent rally past $5,000.

What’s even more optimistic is that the 60-day volatility chart for BTC is currently sitting at 5%, a level not seen since late-2016, and even fell as low as 2% in early-November 2018. This, as Murad Mahmudov once explained, shows that a Bitcoin rally could be on the horizon.

Featured Image from Shutterstock

Technical Indicator Signals That Bitcoin (BTC) May Be on the Verge of a Bull Run

The crypto markets have dropped slightly today after tepidly climbing higher over the past week. Despite this, Bitcoin (BTC) has been able to firmly establish its position within the $5,000 region and has not incurred any significant selling pressure after climbing towards $5,300.

Although many analysts are currently looking towards freshly formed levels of support and resistance for where BTC is heading next, one technical indicator may signal that the cryptocurrency is on the verge of another bull run.

Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) a Good Buy Between $4,900 and $5,150 

At the time of writing Bitcoin is trading down less than 1% at its current price of just below $5,300. BTC is down slightly from its daily highs of $5,360, but did not incur any significant selling volume after nearing $5,400, which has historically proven to be a strong level of resistance for the cryptocurrency.

It now appears that Bitcoin is caught in a newly formed trading range between approximately $5,000 and $5,400, with its support level first being formed when BTC treated $5,000 as a level of strong support on April 11th.

Flood, a popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, explained in a recent tweet that he is looking towards the $4,900 to $5,150 price range as an area in which he will buy more Bitcoin.

“I’m a buyer from 5150 to 4900. That is all,” he concisely noted.

Because Bitcoin has been unable to break above the upper boundary of the aforementioned trading range, it is probable that it will revisit the lower-$5,000 region in the near-future.

BTC May Be on The Verge of a Massive Bull Run 

Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) – which is an important technical indicator that many analysts use to gain insight into whether or not an asset is overbought or oversold – is nearing a level that has historically marked the start of previous bull runs when broken above.

Cow Jones, a cryptocurrency trader on Twitter, discussed this in a recent tweet, pointing towards Bitcoin’s historical RSI action as evidence for why this level could signal an imminent bull run.

“Personally don’t use RSI much. However, this is an interesting fork in the road. Past bull market began with RSI above the boxed range,” he explained.

As a relatively quiet weekend trading session wraps up and a fresh week begins, trader and investors alike will likely gain greater insight into where the crypto markets are heading next.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

Ethereum Classic Could Provide Security Services to Ethereum, Analyst Explains

/latest/2019/04/ethereum-classic-could-provide-security-services-to-ethereum-analyst-explains/

Donald McIntyre, one of the most active communication coordinators in the Ethereum Classic (ETC) community, has drawn some interesting comparisons between ETC and Ethereum (ETH), the world’s largest platform for building decentralized applications (dApps).

Comparing Ethereum and Ethereum Classic

McIntyre, a former Business Development Manager at ETCDEV, a leading organization which is focused on the ongoing development of Ethereum Classic (but was forced to shut down due to lack of funding), told CryptoGlobe: 

A useful analogy is to see ETH as a sports car and ETC is an armoured vehicle. The problem is to think that ETH can be an armoured vehicle and ETC can be a sports car. ETH is about scaling and performance and ETC is about high value and security.

McIntyre, who also previously served as Senior VP at Morgan Stanley and VP at UBS, explained: “ETH and ETC have different functions in the blockchain industry stack. ETC will be a highly secure base chain, perfectly suitable for decentralized computing and high value smart contracts between people and businesses, while ETH is aiming to be a high speed and high volume transactions layer to satisfy high performance applications.”

“ETC Could Provide Security Services to ETH”

McIntyre added: “In that context, ETC could even provide security services to high performance networks such as ETH. I think it would be a big advantage for both ecosystems (ETH and ETC) to analyze that possibility as it would likely minimize, in the context of a standards war, which means that only few networks will survive in the future, the threat of alternative ETH compatible chains such as EOS, Tezos, Cardano, and others.”

Commenting on the unique features of Ethereum Classic, McIntyre remarked: “When ETH finally moves to ETH 2.0, which is a proof-of-stake (PoS) based system with database fragmentation, in the form of sharding, and variable monetary policy, ETC will be the only non-fragmented, fixed monetary policy, (proof-of-work) PoW and Turing complete blockchain. That is an extremely valuable niche in the industry that will be increasingly appreciated in the next few years as the layer 1 (L1) vs layer (L2) and security vs performance segmentations become more evident for market participants.”

When asked about the main challenges Ethereum Classic faces as a platform, McIntyre noted: “On the technical side, ETC as a platform is not facing major challenges as I see the ECIP (Ethereum Classic Improvement Proposal) upgrades pipeline is advancing smoothly. For example, the Atlantis hard fork on block 8,750,000, which integrates ETH’s Spurious Dragon and Byzantium upgrades, will likely be deployed and activated by mid September 2019, and the Agharta hard fork on block 9,200,000, which integrates ETH’s Constantinople and St.Petersburg upgrades, is under technical analysis, but has minor observations that are being ironed out.”

McIntyre continued:

On the marketing side, I do observe ETC, for historical reasons, has a lower profile and less top-of-mind awareness, so communications about its true state and advancement is always more difficult and costly to convey. The fact that ETH and EOS and the others have billions of dollars to spend on this, is of course a factor as well. However, there are several volunteers, professionals and entities in the ecosystem working on more and more effective communication, such as the ETC Cooperative, IOHK, ETC labs, Christian Seberino, Kevin Lord, myself and others.

“DPoS Ledgers Are Not Blockchains”

When asked to comment on Daniel Larimer’s (the CTO at Block.one and technical lead for the EOS project) statements that delegated proof of stake (DPoS) is more scalable and compatible with future technologies, McIntyre noted: “No matter how many gimmicks PoS distributed ledgers such as EOS invent, they are just that: distributed ledgers. Those are not blockchains, they just make blocks to mimic the authority and perceived security of Bitcoin and Ethereum Classic, but they are no better than normal Byzantine Fault Tolerant and subjectiveness dependant networks.”

He added: “Their security is up to 1/3 fault tolerance and nothing more. I would say that the fact they designate stakers or, even worse, a few privileged nodes to be ‘master nodes’ reduces security further, because the consensus has to be reached only between that subset of a few players, and the rest of the nodes become just followers of their decisions instead of true validators.”

McIntyre further mentioned:

For a system as centralized and subjectively directed as EOS to say that it is ‘scalable’ and ‘compatible’ with future technologies is not only a truism, but a stupid truism. This is because it is actually a very inefficient centralized and cumbersome distributed ledger, when AWS, Microsoft Azure, IBM Cloud, Google Cloud are equally centralized, but less bureaucratic and much more efficient and secure by trusted third party standards.

According to McIntyre: “From a business strategy perspective, EOS is ‘stuck in the middle.’ This means it is not trust minimized as Bitcoin and ETC, but it is not as efficient as AWS or Azure and the other cloud services. Therefore, EOS is a dead end for all intents and purposes.”

In response to Larimer’s statements that PoW is not a future-compatible protocol, because we cannot create a new chain with the same network effect as BTC and ETH, McIntyre stated: “That is the false argument that assumes that high computing power is the only security feature of blockchains that use PoW. It also shows why Larimer would use PoS and copy features of democracy such as ‘delegated-proof-of-stake’ and voting, because he ignores the security model of PoW chains, and thus ignores that EOS is a significantly inferior system in terms of security, and not competitive even in the performance segment, as I mentioned above.”

McIntyre further mentioned: “To illustrate, proof of work blockchains security features include, but are not limited to:

• Consensus & transaction ordering with 1/2 fault tolerance, which is not achievable by PoS.

• Sybil resistance is much stronger in PoW, with most accumulated work fork choice, than the subjective model of PoS.

• Accumulated work means that the work done by the miners since genesis is accumulated, making it practically impossible to reverse the chain, even with all the hash power in the

network. In PoS, 1/3+ of stakers can reverse to genesis in seconds.

• Unforgeable costliness means the coin is extremely costly to create, thus very difficult to forge.

Also, that cost sets a proxy for its value in the economy. In PoS, creating the coins has no cost.

• The above unforgeable costliness also creates a fallback in case the fee model doesn’t work (which is unlikely) or the social layer goes rogue with monetary policy.

• Broadcast and replication among all full nodes who are true validators, not like PoS, where the only validators are stakers (or ‘master nodes’ in EOS).

• Miner-client division of power, related to the previous point, also means that PoW miners only build blocks, but those blocks are worthless if not validated by full nodes; this divides the power in the chain and renders no particular participant all powerful, even with 1/2+ computing power.

In PoS, such division of power does not exist, rendering 1/3+ of stakers (note this is a subset of the subset) as the only group that controls everything in the distributed ledger.

All of the above means that whether there are several proof of work chains and some are larger than others or if they even share the same mining algo, does not mean they are less secure. It only means that the smaller chain users have to use more confirmations for larger transactions as they may be vulnerable to double spends, which is in itself a local, non-systemic attack vector in PoW public blockchains. In fact, ETC is proof of this.”

“Impossible for Me to Know What’ll Happen in Next Few Years”

When asked what he thinks the crypto landscape will look like next year, and maybe two years from now, and what potential role ETC will play in that, McIntyre said: “It is impossible for me to know what will happen in the next year or two, but what I expressed above indicates that the whole industry will eventually reorganize itself in layers: L1 being the most secure, low performance, high value layer; L2 being the high performance, high volume, and lower transaction value layer; and other systems on top that may constitute the applications layer, such as Lightning Network, Plasma, Raiden, Liquid, other sidechains and others.

He added:

If ETH, EOS, Cardano, Tezos and other PoS networks actually acknowledge their true nature, they would stop trying to compete at the base layer, and assume their position as layer 2 systems that would use the security services of the base layer as I described in the first question.

Hodler’s Digest, April 15–21: Top Stories, Price Movements, Quotes and FUD of the Week

Top Stories This Week

In an apparent first, the United States Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has given a penalty to a California resident who has been accused of wilfully violating money transmission laws as a peer-to-peer virtual currency exchanger. The department noted that the move marks its first such enforcement action, thus setting a precedent. The defendant — Eric Powers of Kern County, California — has been fined $35,000 and debarred from future work that qualifies as a money services business. The fine came from the determination that Powers violated his reporting obligations under the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act.

Craig Wright, the chief scientist at nChain and founder of bitcoin SV (BSV), filed a libel claim in the United Kingdom against cryptocurrency podcaster Peter McCormack. McCormack had previously accused Wright of fraud and falsely claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of bitcoin (BTC). In response, Wright’s claim allegedly requests over $130,000 in damages, as well as legal costs and court fees. Earlier this week, Binance, ShapeShift and Kraken decided to delist BSV amid Wright’s continued claims to be Satoshi, as well as his bounty offering in the search for the identity of the anonymous Twitter user behind the Lightning Torch.

Cédric O, France’s Minister of State for the Digital Sector, said this week that he is open to accepting cryptocurrency donations for the reconstruction of the Notre Dame Cathedral, which experienced a debilitating fire last week. The donations for the medieval cathedral’s reconstruction have already reached over $1 billion, while not yet allowing for donations in crypto. The official fundraising site is linked to four approved organizations, with Cédric O noting that the government is open to discussion on how to accept crypto to drive up the fundraising.  

Both BlockShow, an international blockchain event powered by Cointelegraph, and major crypto exchange Binance have launched crypto donation campaigns for the renovations.

Financial news outlet Forbes released their “Blockchain’s Billion Dollar Babies,” a list of companies implementing blockchain technology that have minimum revenues or valuations of $1 billion. The list includes both companies in the crypto and blockchain development spaces, as well as larger companies in the traditional markets, such as banks and clearing houses, food companies and supply chain management firms. The list contains such household names as Amazon, Walmart, Facebook, ING, Mastercard, Microsoft and Nestle, as well as U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, European mining and hardware firm Bitfury, and blockchain-based financial services network and XRP token creator Ripple.

Switzerland-based food giant Nestlé, French supermarket chain Carrefour and IBM have partnered in order to use IBM’s blockchain tech to track French instant mashed potatoes. Shoppers will be able to use their smartphones in Carrefour stores to scan the packs of Mousline instant mashed potatoes with a QR code and be able to see data on the potatoes, including the varieties of potatoes used, the date and place of manufacture, and their journey to the store. In general, around 5 million different food items already employ blockchain in their supply chain in some form.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, bitcoin is up, trading at around $5,348, ether at around $173 and XRP at $0.32. Total market cap is around $180 billion.

The top three altcoin gainers of the week are fivebalance, atlantis blue digital token and segwit2x. The top three altcoin losers of the week are cointogo, ezoow and robocalls.

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis.

Most Memorable Quotations

“We have no idea what the extent of the malfeasance is on centralized exchanges. If we extrapolate from what we’ve seen on DEXes, it could well be on the order of billions of dollars.”

Ariel Juels, professor at Cornell Tech

“We should let investors, companies, and individuals know what the landscape and treatment will be moving forward to support innovation and development. The blockchain has vast potential.”

Andrew Yang, U.S. presidential candidate

“From day one, I’ve maintained the allegations are bogus, and they are of course. After their attorney was sanctioned and they were ordered to pay my legal fees twice, we recently reached a confidential resolution, and I’m dismissed from the case.”

Charlie Shrem, in regard to the court case with the Winklevoss twins

“The digitalization will also create much needed synergies among the government organizations for ensuring friction-less service delivery and improving ease of doing business in the country.”

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan

FUD of the Week

This week, following crypto exchange Binance’s announcement that they were delisting bitcoin SV, anonymous exchange ShapeShift has also delisted the currency, as well as Kraken. ShapeShift CEO Erik Voorhees posted on Twitter that the exchange stands with the sentiments of Binance and CZ, the CEO, in their decision to delist BSV following controversial claims from BSV founder Craig Wright over his alleged identity as Satoshi Nakamoto, as well as his public bounty to unveil the identity of anonymous Twitter user @hodlonaut. Shortly after, a community poll from Kraken led the exchange to also delist the altcoin.

Unocoin, an Indian cryptocurrency exchange, has reportedly let go of half its staff, leaving the company with 14 workers. Unocoin cited regulatory uncertainty in the industry, noting that it made the decision concerning staff reduction ahead of an Indian Supreme Court hearing on cryptocurrency’s legal status in India, set for July. Since the peak of the business, Unocoin has allegedly fired 80% of its staff, and the business operations are reportedly running off of capital reserves as executives await news about the future. The crypto industry in India is in the process of fighting the country’s previous negative ruling on crypto dealings, in the form of a lengthy Supreme Court process.

A group of individuals have been indicted by the Manhattan district attorney for allegedly selling drugs and laundering millions of dollars with bitcoin (BTC). According to Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr., with help from the U.S. Secret Service, the U.S. Postal Inspection Service and U.S. Homeland Security Investigations, Chester Anderson and his criminal accomplices, Jarrette Codd and Ronald Maccarty, allegedly operated dark web stores that sold and shipped hundreds of thousands of tablets of counterfeit drugs. According to the press release, the defendants laundered a reported $2.3 million in bitcoin by using preloaded debit cards and withdrawing cash at automated teller machines.

Best Cointelegraph Features

After noting that Lagos, Nigeria, is the number one city in terms of the volume of online searches for bitcoin, Cointelegraph checks out how Nigerians actually interact with the top cryptocurrency.

After this week saw a mass deslisting of Craig Wright’s bitcoin SV, Cointelegraph examines what caused the crypto community’s anger toward the self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto.

In Cointelegraph’s first-ever movie review, Emmy-award winning screenwriter Edward Zuckerman takes a look at the “Crypto” movie, finding (spoiler!) little to do with cryptocurrencies and a lot more to do with the Russian mob.

Attempts to Deplatform @Bitcoin Account Reveal Private Message With Twitter CEO

Attempts to Deplatform @Bitcoin Account Reveal Private Message With Twitter CEO

A number of cryptocurrency supporters have been getting riled up lately over the @Bitcoin account on Twitter. Over the last 48 hours, various bitcoin core (BTC) supporters have been reporting the account to Twitter and the platform’s CEO Jack Dorsey. Things escalated when one BTC supporter private messaged Dorsey about getting the @Bitcoin account banned, to which the social media executive replied: “What do you recommend we do with it?”

Also read: Darknet Users Allege Wall Street Market Exit Scammed, Possibly Snatching $30M

Private Messages Shared on Twitter Spark More Debate About the @Bitcoin Twitter Handle

Crypto Twitter has a lot of vitriolic energy and lately some of it has been directed at the @Bitcoin Twitter account. The account in question has over 930,000 followers and is controversial to some individuals because it regularly tweets about bitcoin cash (BCH). The @Bitcoin account described long ago how it changed it’s opinion since BTC wasn’t scaling and the Core developers behind it decided not to fix the issues at hand.

Attempts to Deplatform @Bitcoin Account Reveal Private Message With Twitter CEO

By 2017, this became really apparent to the @Bitcoin account when network fees exceeded $50 per transaction and some Core enthusiasts decided to celebrate the problem. Since the BTC narrative change from peer-to-peer cash to a store of value, the @Bitcoin account decided to support the BCH roadmap. The account has been tweeting about BCH and criticizing the BTC network’s problems for quite some time now. This has caused some maximalists on Twitter to get infuriated with the account’s tweets and a few have been reporting the account to Twitter admins.

Attempts to Deplatform @Bitcoin Account Reveal Private Message With Twitter CEO

Some of these people also called upon Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter who is also a known investor in the Lightning Network. A few of the people simply tagged @Jack and asked him to ban the account. However, one BTC proponent and analyst for Messari, Zack Voell, sent Dorsey a private message. Voell was allegedly sent a response from Dorsey as well, according to the screenshot Voell shared. “What do you recommend we do with it?” asked the Twitter CEO in the private message. After a few individuals told Voell that it was unethical to share a private message to the public, the tweet was then deleted. The owner of Bitcoin.org, Cobra Bitcoin, told Voell: “It’s bad etiquette to share private messages.”

Attempts to Deplatform @Bitcoin Account Reveal Private Message With Twitter CEO
According to this screenshot (now deleted) and shared by Messari representative Zack Voell, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey responded by asking: “What do you recommend we do with it?”

The @Bitcoin account has already been banned in 2018 and then subsequently shadow banned following the initial removal. The @Bitcoin profile, with close to 1 million followers, now has far less of an audience reach than before. On April 20, the account spoke out once again about the individuals attempting to silence it.

“The BTC maxis especially don’t like when I point out the obvious contradiction in promoting censorship-resistance as a fundamental value,” the @Bitcoin account tweeted. “While they also going around abusing Twitter’s report function to deplatform voices they don’t like. Twitter CEO @jack is aware and is complicit.”

A Private Account Is Free to Support Whatever Chain it Believes Is Bitcoin

After all the tweets about reporting the account to Twitter admins and the private message to Dorsey, many BCH fans changed their Twitter profile pictures and replaced them with the @Bitcoin avatar. They also started a hashtag #WeAreAllBitcoin as an act of protest, similar to last week’s Twitter display where many Twitter users changed their profile pictures claiming to be the Twitter user @Hodlonaut. The basic argument concerning the @Bitcoin account is that maximalists believe there can only be one version of Bitcoin and everything else is fraudulent.

Attempts to Deplatform @Bitcoin Account Reveal Private Message With Twitter CEO

On the other side of the debate, BCH supporters and those of other forks of the protocol believe there are multiple versions of Bitcoin now. This is similar to the debate that was spurred when Ethereum split into two chains and there are many today who believe Ethereum Classic is a legitimate version of the protocol. Some even consider ETC the “original chain” whose immutability remains intact.

Attempts to Deplatform @Bitcoin Account Reveal Private Message With Twitter CEO

There are also those who believe that only a couple of versions of the Bitcoin protocol have what it takes to compete in the free market. Supporters of the @Bitcoin account say the owner should be able to support any version of the protocol they desire.

Attempts to Deplatform @Bitcoin Account Reveal Private Message With Twitter CEO

The @Bitcoin Twitter profile is a private account and no person or group besides the owner should obstruct the account’s opinions. In many people’s eyes, Bitcoin itself is open source technology, free from copyright, trademarks and owners, so banning the @Bitcoin account would be an act of censorship. Furthermore, with Dorsey being an investor in Lightning, some have said that it may not be in his best interests to ban an account based on the subjective opinions of others.

The debate on Twitter rages on this weekend and it has been quite the spectacle to say the least. It’s likely the arguments will continue in this vein long into next week across crypto Twitter. As the adage goes, there’s never a dull day in Bitcoin.

What do you think about the controversy surrounding the @Bitcoin account? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.


Image credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, and Twitter.


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Jamie Redman

Jamie Redman is a financial tech journalist living in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He has a passion for Bitcoin, open source code, and decentralized applications. Redman has written thousands of articles for news.Bitcoin.com about the disruptive protocols emerging today.

Neutral Dollar Stablecoin Founder Explains How to Access Shared Liquidity Pools

/latest/2019/04/neutral-dollar-stablecoin-founder-explains-how-to-access-shared-liquidity-pools/

Matthew Branton, the Founder and Chief Technology Officer at Neutral, a smart contract-enabled platform that provides various financial instruments for the cryptocurrency industry, has predicted that stablecoins will have “a tremendous impact on the future economy.”

Branton, a computer science graduate from Lafayette College, told CryptoGlobe that stablecoins offer “access to a digital currency that can enable payments, credit, and banking services which many people don’t have access to.”

According to Branton:

[Stablecoins are] innovative digital assets [that] will help lower the barriers for [major financial] applications and [they will also] help people transact in value [systems] they are familiar with, such as the USD [and other fiat currencies.]

“Cultivating Healthy Dialogue to Help Build Wider Understanding” of Stablecoin Market

In response to a question about how the traditional financial system could be upgraded (in terms of both the regulatory framework and technological infrastructure) so that it can allow users to legally acquire stablecoins and other digital assets, Branton remarked:

In order to ensure that regulation evolves in tandem with advances in financial technology (FinTech), dialogue between regulators and innovators is essential. Cultivating a healthy dialogue among fintech project [developers], stakeholders and regulators of traditional finance will help build wider understanding of the benefits of stablecoins, and in turn accelerate the creation of regulation and infrastructure that accommodates stablecoins in the global economy.

Neutral Dollar Aims to Provide “Diversified Exposure” to Investors at “Lower Risk”

When asked what unique value proposition the Neutral Dollar stablecoin offers, which may not currently be available in the cryptoasset market, and how this is supposed to be relevant and useful, Branton said:

The Neutral dollar provides diversified exposure, presenting a lower risk alternative against other stablecoins (which contrary to their name, may not exhibit stability) in the market. In addition, the Neutral Dollar functions in a way that creates an additional layer that allows for shared liquidity amongst constituents stablecoins, a property that isn’t inherent in their design. Given the fragmented and nascent nature of the crypto market structure right now, this solution is particularly relevant and unique in the marketplace.

Responding to a question about the potential impact he expects his company’s line of products to have on the cryptoasset market, Branton stated:

The impact of our products is to not only give end-users a better means to invest, trade, or hedge cryptoassets, but to also facilitate liquidity and engage in better portfolio management practices through our products. In order for the digital asset space to reach its full potential, the industry needs reliable financial instruments that take us beyond the limitations of fiat currencies, while also upholding the highest standards in stability and transparency. In the longer term, we plan to explore the launch of a suite of financial products to improve market infrastructure and activity.

Digital Asset Security Is “Quite Solid”

Commenting on how we can ensure the security of our assets, including stablecoins users might acquire, since the technology used to transact in these assets is highly technical, Branton noted:

Given that collateral is on-chain and smart contract based, security is decentralized in nature and quite solid. Asset safety is still the responsibility of the end-user — crypto-storage extends beyond the case of stablecoins and Neutral Dollar itself.

He added: “Ultimately, once a Neutral Dollar token is deployed on smart contract networks, it will function completely autonomously. The math and algorithms that govern its operation will operate independently of a centralized entity and in a transparent manner, and provide continuous services on the network.”

Bitcoin Bull Tom Lee: Alt-Season May Be Underway, Crypto Assets To See Strong Rally

All eyes may be on Bitcoin (BTC), but other crypto assets have seen their fair share of gains since the start of 2019, sparking calls that what is known as “altseason” is right on the horizon. Per one prominent industry analyst, this cyclical industry event, which sees altcoins dramatically outperform the de-facto cryptocurrency lead, may actually be live as we publish this.

Historical Precursor To Altseason Is Showing Its Face

Fundstrat’s prominent head of research, Tom Lee, recently took to Twitter to remark that one of the “pre-conditions” for historical altcoin rallies is coming to life in the current cycle. This precursor, for those unaware, is a drop in the correlation between the crypto asset class at large and Bitcoin itself.

Per Lee’s chart, which cites data from Bloomberg, CoinMarketCap, and his own firm, a drop in the rolling 90-day correlation between the two subsets has preceded three altseasons — Mar 2016, early-2017, and late-2017/early-2018. An altseason, as defined by Fundstrat, is when a large percentage of altcoins in the “liquid universe” rally by over 200% in a short period of time.

With preliminary indicators predicting a further collapse in the correlation between digital assets and BTC, an altseason might already be well underway. If you take a brief gander at CoinMarketCap or other analytics providers, this would seemingly be the case.

Binance Coin (BNB) recently surpassed its all-time high, in a brutal bear market no less, as Litecoin has rallied by over 200% since December’s low. Cardano, Ethereum, Tezos, and Basic Attention Token are among other prominent cryptocurrencies that have also seen jaw-dropping gains in the past 90 days. But, this surge might just be the tip of the iceberg.

As Lee explains, historical altseasons averaged gains of 1,100%. He adds that Fundstrat expects for the next rally in cryptocurrencies to “deliver returns similar to the 2017/2018 cycles.”

Bitcoin Likely To Rally Alongside Other Crypto Assets 

While Lee is hinting that the fabled altseason is finally here, this isn’t to say that he is bearish on Bitcoin. Far from, in fact.

In a recent CoinTelegraph Youtube segment, the analyst claimed that the Bitcoin Misery Index, a measure meant to determine the average sentiment of a cryptocurrency holder, reached 89 — the highest the signal has ever read in a bear market. In the eyes of Lee, this confirms that BTC is out of a bear market, as x > 67 readings only came during bull markets. He adds that as Bitcoin has held above its 200-day moving average for an extended period, he is fairly convinced that bears are finally biting the dust.

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