The Biggest FUD and FOMO Moments in Crypto 2019

The crypto industry, Bitcoin, blockchain, and any of its varieties is driven primarily by hype and speculation as the emerging technologies underlying each asset are often too new or unproven to yet provide a realistic valuation.

Due to this, the constant ebb and flow of FUD and FOMO often dictate market movements and turn major losers into top market gainers almost overnight. Here’s a look at the past year’s biggest FUD and FOMO-driving moments.

Crypto and Bitcoin’s Biggest FUD and FOMO Moments of 2019

FUD is an acronym for fear, uncertainty, and doubt. FOMO is an acronym for the fear of missing out. The two factors regularly provide the push or pull pressure on the market that causes crypto asset prices to fluctuate.

Some events, cause a widespread occurrence of panic-buying, where investors stack up on an asset without any regard for risk or potential loss, much like was seen at the height of the crypto hype bubble.  Others, cause panic-selling, where investors dump their crypto fearing a devastating crash where as much as 99% of an asset’s value is wiped out.

Both are common occurrences that take place often throughout crypto, and here are some of the year’s most impactful of those moments.

China Endorses Blockchain

Just as Bitcoin had fallen to new local lows, confirming that Bitcoin’s uptrend was kaput, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke out in support of blockchain technology, telling his citizens his country needed to remain on the forefront of developing the future of the budding technology. Crypto whales saw this as an opportunity to cause a splash in Bitcoin and cause a short squeeze of epic proportions. However, the resulting FOMO from China’s support of “crypto” caused Bitcoin to set a record for its third-largest single-day gain in the asset’s young history. No other moment in 2019 caused more extreme and abrupt FOMO.

Facebook Libra Launch

Facebook Libra is a story of FOMO turned FUD. The year kicked off to rumors swirling that Facebook was hard at work developing a cryptocurrency of its own, under Mark Zuckerberg’s order. However, once the social media giant made the big reveal, the entire political world turned on the corporation and feared the complete monopoly over privacy it could one day have if it gains access to user’s transaction data, in addition to all of the behavioral patterns the company already secretly captures.

Trump Tweets About Bitcoin

Following the controversy that Facebook Libra kicked up, United States President Donald Trump tweeted about Bitcoin, Facebook Libra, and crypto as a whole, suggesting that they were used for illicit crimes. And while there’s no denying the leader of the free world talking about crypto is important, it’s not wise to ignore that it was said in a negative tone. In fact, Trump’s tweet almost perfectly coincided with Bitcoin’s recent rally top.

Binance Blocks US Users From Flagship

When Binance announced it would be blocking US-based investors from trading using its flagship platform, fear, uncertainty, and doubt took over the altcoin market, causing a massive selloff and widespread capitulation. With crypto regulation suddenly a hot topic, and with industry leaders shutting out their biggest customer base without much explanation, things indeed got scary. Everything turned out okay, with the company launching its own US platform that is growing each day, but for a while there, the crypto market was certainly spooked and asset prices reflected this.

Bakkt Launch Hype and Failure

No story was more hyped in 2019 but resulted in more of a dud, then Bakkt. The Bitcoin futures trading platform from the parent company of NASDAQ was a hot button issue dating back to 2018 when it was first announced, and most of the crypto market expected the sudden influx of institutional investors it would create would be enough to cause Bitcoin to immediately embark on a new bull run. However, Bakkt launched to abysmal trading volume, and the day it launched Bitcoin fell by nearly $2,000 in a single day, showing that even the biggest FOMO moments can quickly turn into FUD.

Is your favorite moment missing from the list? Comment below!

Why is Bitcoin Price Growing Slower and Slower?

The potential short-term and long-term growth prospects of bitcoin can be gauged from the ongoing price activity. BTC price is facing increasing resistance on its way up. Volatility is decreasing with time. What does this mean for bitcoin’s overall outlook? 


In his latest article, entrepreneur, engineer, and bitcoin optimist Harold Christopher Burger deeply analyzed the supposed reason behind BTC’s stunted market growth. As per his inference, two things become clear regarding bitcoin’s recent price evolution:

  • The case for bitcoin’s diminishing yearly returns is growing stronger
  • Bitcoin price fluctuations are becoming less extreme in the short term

A plausible explanation for the observations is investment capital. It takes more and more fiat currency to move BTC’s price higher. Apparently, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find the requisite capital to do so.

In HC Burger’s words:

Moving the price of bitcoin from $0.1 to $1 was possible with relatively few dollars. Moving the price of bitcoin from $1000 to $10000 required much more capital. This effect slows the potential growth of bitcoin in both the long- and short-term.

Future bull markets are expected to be much slower and long term bitcoin returns will be less as per the published study.

Capital to Move Bitcoin Price Not Easily Available

Gone are the days, when it was relatively easier to bring significant changes in the bitcoin price action. BTC trading was not physically possible until July 17, 2010. Then when bitcoin’s price was around $0.1, increasing BTC’s valuation by 100 percent required less capital. The situation wasn’t the same when the benchmark crypto’s price rose from $10,000 to $20,000 in late 2017 – early 2018, and earlier this year.

Although the rallies were mostly fuelled by retail interest and the ICO boom, the inflow of capital was sumptuous, resulting in a terrific surge of the total cryptocurrency market cap to around $800 billion.

capital for btc growth difficult

This would be highly improbable now, as ‘attracting more and more people to invest in bitcoin, or finding exceptionally wealthy investors will become more and more difficult. Although institutional investment in bitcoin and the crypto market is expected to rise manifold according to noted global fintech leaders.

Just not long-term price growth even short-term explosive rallies will become increasingly less as volatility will reduce and bull markets will take longer timeframes to develop.

short term price growth

There’s Still Light at the End of the Tunnel

Mr. Burger’s analysis is heavily drawn from the bitcoin price model that considers growth with diminishing returns. That also puts all outrageous BTC predictions to rest, as they (over the top predictions) consider that bitcoin’s price will never slow down and always keep growing.

However, all hope is not lost. Even though the non-diminishing price model does not guarantee humongous returns, bitcoin will still continue to grow from strength to strength and outperform most traditional assets.

Bitcoin’s astounding growth over the last decade was covered today by Bloomberg. This is reminiscent of the fact over a considerable period of time, in spite of numerous bull and bear market cycles, Bitcoin’s long-term promise remains strong.

How do you think will bitcoin’s price grow over the next decade? Share with us your thoughts in the comments below! 


Images via Shutterstock, Medium: Harold Christopher Burger

In Race for 2030 Currency Supremacy, the Dollar Is Its Own Worst Enemy

The U.S. dollar’s century-long reign of the world economy faces a threat over the coming decade – as China’s renminbi strives to become its successor, as some prominent central bankers call for a more sustainable global monetary regime and as cryptocurrencies pose a radically alternative model. 

But as the 2020s begin, the dollar looks as strong as ever in global capital markets.

As of Dec. 30, an index of the U.S. dollar’s value is up 24 percent over the past decade, even as the Federal Reserve pumped more than $2 trillion of freshly printed money into the financial system and U.S. national debt more than doubled to about $23 trillion.

The greenback’s share of central bank foreign exchange reserves stands at about 62 percent, unchanged since Jan. 1, 2010, according to the International Monetary Fund. The second-place euro, touted by some leading economists in the late 2000s as a potential rival to the dollar, saw its share of central bank reserves decline over the past decade to about 20 percent from 26 percent.

The Japanese yen, seen as a threat to the dollar in the 1980s, now accounts for just 5.4 percent of central bank reserves. The British pound, which dominated global markets for a century until World War I, has a modest share of 4.4 percent, with its future uncertain as the U.K. moves toward an exit from the European Union. And China, despite decades of rapid economic growth and a push by authorities there to expand the renminbi’s use in international trade and payments, has never seen its currency account for more than 2 percent of central banks’ reserves.

As for digital assets, frequently touted as the future of money, they barely register as an asset class compared with government-issued currencies. Bitcoin’s entire market value stands at about $133 billion, well below central banks’ de minimis $218 billion allocation to the renminbi. 

Signs of decline?

The dollar’s dominance is under attack, though, as a growing number of economists and world leaders say the international monetary and financial system looks unsustainable or simply unfair.

U.S. consumers benefit disproportionately from the dollar’s strength, since foreigners are essentially subsidizing Americans’ habit of importing more than they export. 

And global demand for dollar-denominated assets helps keep interest rates low on things like Treasury bonds despite a U.S. federal budget deficit of more than $1 trillion a year. That dynamic encourages governments, businesses and households to take on ever-growing amounts of debt, which might be difficult to pay back if borrowing costs suddenly jumped.

Thus far the dollar has defied decades of predictions that its demise might be at hand.   

“It’s like the shepherd crying wolf,” said Martin Baily, a senior fellow in economic studies at Brookings Institution who served during the late 1990s as chairman of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers. “Unfortunately, sometimes the wolf does come.” 

The U.S. dollar’s share of central bank foreign reserves.

Few events of the past year encapsulated the glaring contrast between the dollar’s solidifying position and the ever-louder calls for change than a speech in August by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. An Oxford University-trained economist, Carney is widely followed among top monetary experts because he previously served both as head of Canada’s central bank and as a former executive of the Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs.

Invited as a guest speaker to an annual Federal Reserve retreat in Wyoming, Carney told the U.S. central bankers that the dollar’s dominant status contributes not just to instability in emerging-market countries but also to a “global savings glut” that has helped push interest rates artificially low. The speech piled onto the worries for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, already facing caustic criticism from President Donald Trump for setting interest rates too high. 

“Past instances of very low rates have tended to coincide with high-risk events such as wars, financial crises and breaks in the monetary regime,” Carney said. “Left unattended, these vulnerabilities are only likely to intensify.”

The solution? According to Carney, the international monetary system might benefit from an alternative to the dollar such as a “synthetic hegemonic currency,” potentially provided “through a network of central bank digital currencies.” 

“The concept is intriguing,” Carney said. “Technology has the potential to disrupt the network externalities that prevent the incumbent global reserve currency from being displaced.” 

Jens Nordviq, a former co-head of currency strategy for Goldman Sachs and now CEO of the data provider Exante, says the fact that “very prominent people” like Carney are seriously discussing the concept “shows that it’s not a farfetched idea.”

A century of domination

The dollar emerged as the world’s dominant currency during the early 20th century when it took over from debt-strapped Britain’s pound; a century before that, Holland’s guilder was undone by the French Emperor Napoleon’s invasion.

Today, the dollar is ubiquitous as ever. Banks around the world stockpile dollars so they can meet demand from local businesses and residents for the currency to use in commerce and payments. Central banks stockpile dollars and dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds so they can meet the needs of local banks for, well, dollars.

Cross-border bank loans denominated in dollars garnered a world-leading 14 percent share of the total in 2018, from 9.5 percent a decade earlier, according to the Bank of International Settlements. U.S. Treasury bonds comprise the world’s biggest government bond market by far, valued at about $17 trillion and growing. Major global commodities like oil and gold are priced in dollars. 

“There is no other asset market as deep or liquid as the dollar asset market,” said Eric Winograd, senior economist at AllianceBernstein, a $592 billion U.S. money manager. 

Bitcoin too is generally quoted in dollars, along with a growing roster of digital “stablecoins” whose value is linked to the U.S. currency. Facebook’s proposed digital asset, Libra, would reportedly be 50 percent backed by dollars

Even China’s planned digital renminbi – reportedly part of an effort to unseat the dollar’s dominance – might just trade like a dollar proxy. That’s because, at least for now, authorities peg the renminbi’s value to an index of major currencies dominated by the U.S. dollar. 

“The renminbi is at this point not really in the running,” said Edwin Truman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who oversaw the Federal Reserve’s division of international finance from the late 1970s through the late 1990s. “The Chinese seem to be pushing it as a denomination for trade, but that’s largely a push rather than a pull of the market.”

After U.S. economic output caught up with Britain’s in the early 20th century, it still took two-and-a-half more decades for the dollar to definitively replace the pound as the reserve currency of choice. Harvard University economist Jeffrey Frankel has attributed the lag to “inertia” – essentially the cost and bother of changing routine payment methods and rewriting legal contracts. 

“There’s a lot of discussion of substitutes for the dollar as the global reserve currency,” said Bill Adams, senior international economist for the U.S. bank PNC. “But the lesson of the last 10 years is that, at least to me, it’s easier said than done.”

Disclosure Read More

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

Inside the Osaka Conference Where Crypto Got Serious About FATF’s ‘Travel Rule’

This post is part of CoinDesk’s 2019 Year in Review, a collection of 100 op-eds, interviews and takes on the state of blockchain and the world. Leah Callon-Butler is the director of Emfarsis, a consulting firm focused on the role of technology in advancing economic development in Asia.

There he was, belting out Fats Waller jazz vibes like it was nobody’s business: Roger Wilkins, the former president of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). 

We’d just completed a practice run for the next day’s V20 Summit, and while the rest of us were exhausted and ravenous, sniffing out dinner options, Wilkins relished the opportunity to jump behind the keys of a lonely baby grand at the farthest end of the Grand Ballroom at the Hilton Osaka. Leaving my run-sheet behind, I sidled up to catch an impromptu performance from the man who once steered international standards in the fight against money laundering, terrorist financing and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

“I usually play Bach or Chopin,” Wilkins said, wrapping up his medley.

The next morning, more than 100 of the world’s most formidable figures in crypto compliance assembled to unpack one of the most pivotal regulatory developments in the history of our fledgling industry. Held June 28-29, 2019 in parallel to the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Osaka, Japan, the V20 Summit was a chance for the industry to respond to a highly controversial new set of recommendations handed down by the FATF.

Some saw it as an opportunity to legitimize crypto and bring virtual assets into the mainstream financial system; others feared an assault against our community’s most fundamental values of privacy and decentralization. CoinDesk’s Marc Hochstein told me via Twitter DM he thought it might be a bigger story than Facebook’s recently announced Libra. Another journalist suggested it might be crypto’s Bretton Woods moment.

Recommendation 16 was the one causing all the ruckus. As per the FATF’s new guidance, Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) would be required to identify the sender and recipient on either side of a crypto transaction. Known as the “Travel Rule” due to the fact that data that must “travel” along with a traditional wire transfer, international banks and financial institutions had been forced to comply with these standards since the mid-1990s, giving law enforcement greater transparency and traceability to combat financial crime. And while the vast majority of major crypto exchanges already have Know Your Customer (KYC) policies in place for remitters, including beneficiaries opened up a Pandora’s Box of complexity. In any case, the FATF delivered their directives in Osaka, giving G20 member countries a tight 12 months to implement the guidelines, with a review set for June 2020.

Not-so-draconian

“It would have been nice for these FATF recommendations to be more accommodating to the sector but time constraints effectively ruled that out,” said Siân Jones, co-founder of xReg Consulting. “The major nations of the world got together to set that timetable and the FATF policy group had very little time to develop something more tailored to virtual assets.”

Jones, a self-described poacher-turned-gamekeeper-turned-poacher, has worked both sides of the regulatory fence and has watched the whole thing unfold over the past few years. She said the resulting guidelines were not as draconian as they might have been, were it not for the technical experts in that policy group – herself included – that were able to provide some balance. 

During her technical overview on the implications of the FATF guidance, Jones congratulated VASPs at the V20 on being included in the global financial system. She said this might come with some benefits, such as making it easier for VASPs to get bank accounts, but it would also come with responsibilities. The critical piece now was to find the most appropriate strategies to help the industry develop and innovate in ways that still meet public-policy objectives to thwart money-launderers and terrorists.

“This is a rapidly evolving landscape where regulators and industry just have to catch up with the new reality,” said Jones, who was also instrumental in enacting blockchain-friendly legislation in Gibraltar. Her presentation to the V20 opened with a warning slide: 

Wake up! Smell the coffee!

“The V20 was a great effort to bring the world of crypto together in one room with FATF on the sidelines of the G20,” said Bénédicte Nolens, advisor to Circle, who said that even though crypto-assets have presented a great challenge to traditional finance, they have also opened up opportunities that will continue to evolve in the years ahead.

“We have to keep in mind that the goal of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulation is not to impose unnecessary process, but rather to demand process, so that the most nefarious activity in the world is starved for funding,” Nolens said. Examples of this could be slavery and the drug trade as well as terrorist activity.

A month prior, Nolens was at the FATF Private Sector Consultative Forum in Vienna, invited to present on Recommendation 16. There, she reiterated the importance of a globally-coordinated and consistent approach to implementing the new regulations in G20 member countries, to avoid a situation where firms might try to sidestep the new rules via regulatory arbitrage or through moving jurisdiction, known as “island hopping.”

She also explained how there was currently no crypto equivalent to the International Bank Account Number (IBAN) system, which is what banks use to achieve compliance with the Travel Rule, so VASPs would be forced to come up with something new. Further, Nolens observed that coordination would be tricky, given the still very nascent, albeit global nature, of the crypto industry. 

“It’s true the cryptocurrency sector isn’t very used to talking to regulators, and it can be very hard and very time consuming to build a constructive relationship between companies and their regulators,” said FATF Senior Policy Analyst Tom Neylan, who showed up alongside Wilkins, ready for a grilling from top VASP execs from Circle, Coinbase, Coincheck, bitFlyer, Kraken, BitMEX, Huobi, OKCoin, Bitfinex, Bithumb, Crypto.com, BITPoint, Liquid and more. “But it’s a critical step we have to go through if cryptocurrencies are going to become a real part of peoples’ daily lives.”

At the V20, Neylan told attendees that regulation can be a good thing for industry; it’s not something we should fear. 

“The fear was that these new rules would force VASPs out of business,” said Ronald M. Tucker, convener of the V20 and founder of the Australian crypto exchange Bit Trade. “This risked driving the industry back underground and into dark markets, which, ironically, would make it even more difficult for law enforcers and regulators to do their job.”

Tucker was quick to realize the true gravity of the FATF intervention, as he dealt with a similarly existential threat back in 2014, when Australia was grappling with the issue of double taxation. The rules meant consumers were taxed at the time of buying crypto, and again later, when they used it to purchase items subject to local goods and services tax.

Many exchanges thought that the new rules wouldn’t apply to them.

To tackle the problem, the blockchain community needed clear direction and leadership, and at the time, there was no such vehicle. This moved Tucker to form the Australian Digital Currency Association (ADCA), with the goal of coordinating key stakeholders to develop a robust governance framework to organize all sectors. ADCA was to become a unified voice for the burgeoning industry, ensuring commercial operators were aligned, media were informed and government was educated.

Recently rebranded to Blockchain Australia, today the organization is recognized globally as a leader in regulatory engagement and best practice. And so, with the FATF rules pending implementation, and a lack of global coordination taking place, a sense of déjà vu gave Tucker the impetus to elevate ADCA’s proven formula to a global stage.

A community effort

It was just after CoinDesk’s Consensus 2019 in New York City when Tucker mobilized the core V20 organizing team – including myself, Anson Zeall of ACCESS Singapore, Philippe Le Saux of GMI Post, Nathan Smale of Emfarsis Consulting and the futurist Mark Pesce, well-known for his podcast, The Next Billion Seconds, who championed the role of Summit Chair.

We had less than seven weeks to pull the whole thing together, and at the beginning, our outreach efforts were met with some skepticism. For the VASPs that had actually heard about the FATF issue (most hadn’t, so that required a considerable education effort on our part), many thought that the new rules wouldn’t apply to them. Or, they thought their time and money would be better spent lobbying against the FATF.

“We spent a lot of time rallying the community to stop petitioning against the Travel Rule and start collaborating toward a compliance solution of the industry’s own design,” said Teana Baker-Taylor, executive director of Global Digital Finance (GDF), an industry membership body that sets out standards and best practices for blockchain and digital assets.

GDF members knew the FATF’s hasty timeline and global coordination requirements posed a significant risk to the industry, especially given the additional operational and commercial costs of compliance. But it was also the perfect imperative to finally get the crypto compliance clique working together on a globally interoperable solution. As such, GDF was one of the first to lend its support to Blockchain Australia and ACCESS Singapore to help get the V20 off the ground.

“As a community, we talk about mainstreaming and mass-scale adoption, but it’s often inside our own echo chamber,” said Baker-Taylor, who was named Blockchain Leader of the Year at the 2019 Women in Tech Awards. “If we want the future to reflect our ideals, we’ve got to take some responsibility and step up to educate policymakers, as opposed to resisting them.”

When a trio of policymakers pledged their support to the V20 – namely ex-FATF President Wilkins, Japanese Congressman Naokazu Takemoto and Taiwanese Congressman Jason Hsu – we observed a ripple effect throughout the industry, with huge momentum building among the VASPs. Behind the scenes, we were working like mad to rejig the agenda for Day 2 to accommodate Hsu’s schedule. Hellbent on speaking at the V20, he’d have to fly straight to Osaka from Washington, D.C., where he’d been participating in the U.S. Department of State’s International Visitor Leadership Program and other key think-tanks discussing major industry developments, such as Libra. 

“I felt I needed to be there to support industry and act as a bridge between them and the policymakers and regulators,” said Hsu, who was nicknamed “The Crypto Congressman” by Vitalik Buterin in 2018. Coming from a background in entrepreneurship, Hsu is a rare breed of politician, uninhibited by the usual glacier-pace of government innovation.

“If we want to go long on this industry, we need to regulate, but the current government are still scratching their heads on how best to do it,” said Hsu. He believes FATF will ultimately shed a positive light on the crypto industry, which still struggles to shake its associations with the darknet.

In the absence of clear guidance, Hsu said it’s critical for industry players to lay down the guardrails.

“This industry is prone to security infringement and the crypto operators have to look that truth square in the eyes,” said Hsu, with a nod to the hacks, data leaks and other security hazards making headlines every other day. “If we set the bar high and pave the way for the industry to be formalised, we will see less and less misunderstandings about the true qualities of crypto from the public as well as governments. The VASPs must bring their determination to the table to fix this.”

The site for the V20 Summit was apt. After all, Japan is home to the two biggest crypto exchange hacks in history: Mt Gox and Coincheck. These hefty security breaches ultimately led to Japan’s proactive stance on VASP regulation, becoming the only nation in the world to grant legislative status to its self-regulatory body, the Japan Virtual Currency Exchange Association (JVCEA). The Financial Services Agency (FSA) was the regulatory body behind the establishment of JVCEA in October 2018. Both JVCEA and Japan’s Ministry of Finance were on the speaker lineup for the V20, together with representatives from public sectors including FSA and the Australian Government agency, AUSTRAC. 

“The impact of hacking tends to be bigger than that of ordinary crypto-related money laundering transactions in terms of amount,” said Katsuya Toshihiko, who was the president of Coincheck when he attended the V20. The target of a major hack in January 2018, Coincheck had 500 million NEM tokens stolen by hackers, worth an eye-watering USD $530 million at the time. He says that “painful” experience is what triggered Coincheck’s deep sense of social responsibility and seriousness about responding appropriately to the FATF’s new guidance.

Yuzo Kano, representative director of the Japan Blockchain Association and co-founder of bitFlyer, an exchange, says it was Japan’s troubled history that motivated it to put its security protection and compliance standards under the microscope.

“Today, Japan is two to three years ahead of the rest of the world when it comes to self-regulation,” Kano said, demonstrating how painful circumstances can lead to innovation, provided we embrace the discomfort and look for growth opportunities. Kano spoke at the V20 about the contributions JBA has made, including its strong backing for the establishment of JVCEA as well as a Cryptoassets Governance Task Force aimed at developing safety standards for consumer protection. 

Drawing insights from Japan’s story, V20 participants broke into groups to workshop a blueprint for the requirements of a technical solution that could satisfy the FATF (rather than prescribing any specific product, brand or service provider). A key outcome of these discussions was that the industry needed a governing body to represent its interests at an international level. As such, the International Digital Asset Exchange Association (IDAXA) was established as a vehicle to continue proactive engagement with the FATF.

Since the V20, more organizations have joined the initiative, and now, IDAXA represents the national blockchain associations of Australia, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, Switzerland and JBA and JVCEA from Japan.

Work to do

To arrive at something that satisfies the FATF Recommendations while still being workable for business, a sustained industry-led effort is necessary to ensure the blockchain community’s ethos of decentralization is upheld and consumer privacy is protected above all.

The V20 was an early catalyst but the work is far from done. Most VASPs are still coming to grips with how to comply and how much it’s going to cost, especially all those smaller firms that are struggling to navigate a jumble of regulatory regimes and requirements with less staff and less resources. Meanwhile, a slew of exchanges have already delisted privacy coins such as Monero and Zcash due to regulatory pressure. 

Despite the near-term hurdles, it’s widely believed that the crypto sector’s strong tech focus can actually help achieve FATF’s goals to stymie financial fugitives. Further, industry frontrunners in the race to compliance believe that FATF compliance and data privacy needn’t be mutually exclusive.

In any case, with the big review due in June 2020, there is a very real need to demonstrate progress and a number of groups around the world are working tirelessly to ensure we have the necessary languages, protocols and products to make sense of this new chapter. So by the time the V20 convenes again, at the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Riyadh, November 2020, we could be another step closer to seeing crypto go mainstream.

Disclosure Read More

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

Some Parity Ethereum Nodes Not Syncing, Parity Suspects an Attack

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Some Parity Ethereum Nodes Not Syncing, Parity Suspects an Attack

ethereum-nodes-randomly-stop-syncing-as-parity-warns-of-potential-attack

Various users have been reporting Ethereum nodes running on Parity Technologies’ ETH Client have been “randomly falling out of sync.” After investigation the issue, Parity issued an emergency fix warning an attack may be underway.

According to blockchain services firm Bitfly, multiple reports pointed out nodes using Parity seemingly simply stopped synchronizing with the Ethereum mainnet. Responding to Bitfly’s tweet one user confirmed his nodes stopped syncing, but restarting Parity seemed to be a temporary fix.

The issue seems to have first been spotted on mainnet block 11355 after GitHub user Peter Prascher revealed on the platform his client would stop syncing and only resumed after a restart, showing errors when it wasn’t keeping up with the Ethereum blockchain.

Parity Technologies reacted to the reports revealing that after investigating them, it found “there may be an attack underway.” In response it issued a new release.

The organization has urged all of its users to update to the newest version as soon as possible, whether or not they’re experiencing issues with their Ethereum nodes. Shortly after ETC Cooperative asked Ethereum Classic Parity node operators to upgrade as well, adding the vulnerability also affected the cryptocurrency.

ETC Cooperative later explained how the attack worked:

The attack used a cache poisoning vulnerability, where a carefully crafted invalid block could stall the Parity-Ethereum client. MultiGeth and Hyperledger Besu are not vulnerable.

The attack came shortly before the Ethereum network is set to undergo a scheduled hard fork, dubbed “Muir Glacier.” The update has been scheduled for block number 9,200,000, which is expected to occur on January 1, 2020.

The hard fork will delay the planned increase of Ethereum’s mining difficulty, dubbed the “Ice Age” by an estimated 611 days. The goal is to prepare for the cryptocurrency’s transition from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus algorithm to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus algorithm.

Featured Image Credit: Photo via Pixabay.com

Bitcoin 2020 — Blockchain’s New Year Resolutions

What can I do to prevent this in the future?

If you are on a personal connection, like at home, you can run an anti-virus scan on your device to make sure it is not infected with malware.

If you are at an office or shared network, you can ask the network administrator to run a scan across the network looking for misconfigured or infected devices.

Bitcoin Price Yearly Candle Shows Failed Rally, Longest Wick on Record

Today’s mid-week daily close in Bitcoin price charts carries significantly more weight than usual, as New Year’s Eve marks the last day of the calendar year, and the crypto asset’s yearly candle close.

If the leading crypto asset by market cap closes today at current prices around $7,250, the yearly candle will close with the largest wick on record, clearly showing the failed parabolic rally that occurred around mid-year 2019.

Bitcoin Price Chart: Yearly Candle Closes Tonight

Bitcoin price charts can be viewed across multiple timeframes, with the most significant being given to the largest and longest timeframes.

Crypto traders and analysts often pay particularly close attention to daily, weekly, or monthly price charts in order to get a better grasp on the market and the trend underway.

Related Reading | Past Performance Shows Bitcoin Historic High Could Serve As True Bear Market Bottom

And while yearly price charts aren’t as oft used as the other, longer timeframes, they can be helpful in looking at the bigger overall picture.

One crypto analyst has shared a yearly Bitcoin price chart on Twitter and invited others from the community to do what they do best and speculate on what the yearly candle close means for the crypto asset, and what is expected for the following year’s close.

The candle itself while green does show a failed rally in the form of a massive wick that stopped at prior yearly resistance. The wick is also the largest ever recorded in Bitcoin price on yearly candles, as even 2017’s peak has a $6,000 range from wick peak to candle body close, whereas this year’s reaches from the current price of $7,250 all the way to $14,000 – representing a $6,750 long wick.

What Does This Year’s Candle Close Tell Crypto Analysts?

Analysts responding to the thread suggest that because this year’s candle is closing at under 50% of 2017’s candle, 2020’s yearly close is expected to be red.

For 2020 to close red, Bitcoin price would need to end next year lower than whatever the price closes at when the clock strikes 7PM ET tonight. Another year of sideways or downtrend would likely be too much for many crypto investors who have been holding through two full years of a bear market already.

Others, however, say that the next year’s candle will close green, filling out the wick of 2019 with continued price action until Bitcoin eventually sets a new high.

Related Reading | Here’s What $100 in Bitcoin Would Have Made Next To The Decade’s Best Investments 

While many crypto investors are already thinking about 2020, Bitcoin price still needs to close the daily candle tonight to put 2019 in the history books for good, and set its sights on a new year or trading.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Regulatory Roundup: China Blockchain ETF, France New Crypto Rules, Tokens Like Money in Russia

Regulatory Roundup: China Blockchain ETF, France New Crypto Rules, Tokens Like Money in Russia

Regulatory Roundup: China Blockchain ETF, France New Crypto Rules, Tokens Like Money in Russia

In this roundup, we cover Russia’s supreme court recognizing tokens as assets like money and property, France’s new crypto regulatory framework, and several industry developments in China, including a blockchain ETF filing. We also cover Japan’s world conference for decentralized financial governance, Uzbekistan’s crypto ban, and four countries’ central bank digital currency updates.

Also read: Regulatory Roundup – New US Crypto Bill, France’s 1st Approved ICO, Muslim Crypto

China’s Blockchain ETF and Crypto Warnings

The China Securities Regulatory Commission revealed on Dec. 24 that it had received an application for a blockchain exchange-traded fund (ETF) from Shenzhen-based asset manager Penghua Fund. According to Chinese media, if successfully launched, this fund will be China’s first blockchain ETF. It will track the performance of the blockchain index recently launched by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, one of the two key stock exchanges in mainland China. The index comprises stocks of the largest 50 companies listed on the exchange with blockchain ventures, ranked by market capitalization.

On the same day, Reuters reported that China will expand the scope of its blockchain cross-border financing pilot platform. The government will also “push forward a prospective study on foreign exchange reforms to deal with cryptocurrency and explore the construction of the foreign exchange regulation and technology system under the new situation,” explained Lu Lei, deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

While blockchain friendly after President Xi Jinping openly advocated for the technology, the authorities in China continue to scrutinize crypto businesses. On Dec. 27, four regulators in Beijing jointly issued a warning regarding cryptocurrency trading and related activities in their jurisdictions. It reiterates the September 2017 announcement made by seven Chinese ministries, including the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which led to the closing of crypto and initial coin offering (ICO) trading platforms in the country. Recently, the PBOC’s Shanghai Head Office also issued a similar notice reminding people that the seven ministries’ order is still effective.

The crypto mining industry is also under scrutiny by Chinese regulators. In Sichuan, the authorities went after crypto miners to save electricity in the dry season. In the city of Tangshan, Hebei province, the police recently seized 6,890 bitcoin mining rigs and arrested a group of scammers.

Russian Supreme Court Recognizes Tokens as Assets Like Money or Property

The Russian supreme court has clarified that “digital rights,” the term currently used to describe cryptocurrencies and tokens in Russian law, can be a subject of bribes similar to fiat money, property, and other assets. While Russia currently does not have a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, various institutions in the country, including the courts, have previously characterized them as “money surrogates” which are banned by Russian law.

Meanwhile, Russia’s central bank has reportedly begun testing stablecoins in its regulatory sandbox. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina explained to local publication Interfax on Dec. 25 that the bank looks at companies wanting to issue tokens secured by some real assets, “but we do not assume that they will function as a means of payment and become money surrogate,” she emphasized.

Regarding central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) which many countries are discussing, “we are also at the stage of studying this topic,” the governor revealed. However, she noted that “First of all, we need to understand what will be the advantages for our citizens, for businesses,” compared to other options.

France Publishes New Crypto Rules

France’s financial markets regulator, the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), published its new rules for digital asset service providers (DASPs) on Dec. 20. They define the types of services that are considered DASPs under the new regulatory framework adopted in April and clarify which specific rules apply to crypto or ICO services. The regulator detailed that registration is mandatory for two types of crypto activities, elaborating:

If you provide services of digital asset custody and/or buying or selling digital assets for legal tender in France, you must register with the AMF.

Registrants must be established in France. They will be checked for compliance with the regulations on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT). The AMF also recently approved the first public ICO in France.

Japan Hosting World DeFi Conference

Japan’s top financial regulator, the Financial Services Agency (FSA), announced on Dec. 23 that it is organizing the Blockchain Global Governance Conference in collaboration with Nikkei Inc. The event is in response to the consensus reached by the international regulatory community “on the importance of engaging with various stakeholders in the decentralized financial ecosystem to ensure public policy objectives,” as stated in the G20 Osaka Leaders’ Declaration under Japan’s presidency in June, the agency detailed.

The conference welcomes stakeholders from all around the world, including “those who are active in open-source software communities, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Hyperledger.” University researchers, relevant organizations, businesses in the space, civil society and financial regulators are also invited. According to the FSA, the event aims to “discuss the better governance for decentralized financial ecosystem.”

Uzbekistan’s Crypto Ban

Uzbekistan has banned crypto buying. The country’s National Agency for Project Management has recently adopted amendments to the regulatory regime that place significant restrictions on local private individuals using cryptocurrency. The agency issued an order on Dec. 6 stating that Uzbekistan citizens will only be allowed to sell crypto assets on registered exchanges. Using decentralized cryptocurrencies as a means of payment is now also prohibited in the country.

Furthermore, any transactions involving coins acquired through anonymous means are banned. However, the regulator has not clarified how it plans to determine whether someone’s digital money has been involved in such transfers. Further, crypto trading platforms should only serve verified users of 18 years or older whose names are not on the government’s list of those suspected of money laundering and terrorist financing.

CBDCs in Korea, Japan, and the Bahamas

Besides Russia, three more countries made some announcements regarding their CBDC progress last week. The Central Bank of the Bahamas started a pilot program of a digital version of the Bahamian dollar on Dec. 27 in Exuma, which will be extended to Abaco in the first half of 2020. The bank described:

As the pilot progresses in Exuma, the central bank will simultaneously promote the development of new regulations for the digital currency, and strengthen consumer protection, especially around data protection standards.

The central bank added that it “will also advance reforms to permit direct participation of non-banks in the domestic payments system. Early passage of the new Central Bank of the Bahamas Bill will support the creation of some regulations, while additional reforms will be possible under the existing Payment Systems Act.”

Another country that has been studying the benefits of issuing a CBDC is South Korea. While repeatedly declaring that it is not currently considering issuing one, the Bank of Korea (BOK) is reportedly organizing a task force dedicated to CBDC research, local media reported on Friday. In its “Monetary Policy for 2020” report, the BOK revealed that it will continue to build on research into innovations, including distributed ledger technology, crypto assets, and CBDC. “We will actively engage in discussions with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and other international organizations, keeping an eye on CBDC development at other central banks,” the BOK wrote. The central bank also said it will recruit additional CBDC experts and proceeded to post a job opening for digital currency experts on Dec. 10.

Similarly, Japan is another Asian country actively researching the impact of a CBDC on the current system without committing to issuing one. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) published a summary report on Dec. 24 outlining the legal implications of a CBDC in the country. The report highlights a wide range of issues which need be addressed, including whether a CBDC can be regarded as legal tender, ways to combat its counterfeit or duplication, whether its issuance is consistent with the Bank of Japan Act, and whether the central bank can restrict its use by certain individuals. Other issues concern AML/CFT regulations, protecting personal information, and the penalties for counterfeiting or duplicating CBDC under current criminal law. “By clarifying these potential legal issues spanning various legal fields, the report intends to stimulate further discussion regarding CBDC,” the BOJ concluded.

Catch up on other regulatory roundups you may have missed:

Dec. 23: New US Crypto Bill, France’s 1st Approved ICO, Muslim Crypto
Dec. 16: Crypto ‘Inevitable’ in India, China Rankings, NY Streamlines Policy
Dec. 9: Bitcoin Futures Fund Approved, India’s RBI-Backed Digital Currency
Dec. 2: Germany to Let Banks Sell and Store Crypto, Laws Changing in Asia
Nov. 25: China Rekindles Cleanup, US Widens Oversight, India Defers Decisions

What do you think of the regulatory developments covered in this roundup? Let us know in the comments section below.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.


Images courtesy of Shutterstock.


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Kevin Helms

A student of Austrian Economics, Kevin found Bitcoin in 2011 and has been an evangelist ever since. His interests lie in Bitcoin security, open-source systems, network effects and the intersection between economics and cryptography.





XRP Price Lost 66% Against BTC in 2019 — Will the Pain End in 2020?

What can I do to prevent this in the future?

If you are on a personal connection, like at home, you can run an anti-virus scan on your device to make sure it is not infected with malware.

If you are at an office or shared network, you can ask the network administrator to run a scan across the network looking for misconfigured or infected devices.

2020前夕,中国Crypto最聪明的大脑在想什么?

2020年似乎是一个只存在于科幻小说里的年代,但它真的来了。今天是2019年的最后一天,回顾在行业里度过的这一年,我其实搞不清自己内心的想法,究竟是充满希望失望,还是变得更乐观悲观,“感受”似乎都远比这些词汇更复杂。

但我们都渴望知道其他人的想法。创业是孤独的,在区块链这个不确定性巨大的行业里创业更是如此。在2020年即将到来之际,橙皮书尽可能尝试邀请了中国社区最有影响力的一批人,我们希望和大家一起完成一个活动,记录下此刻每个身处于行业中的个体的状态。

也许我们每个人的想法都很单薄,但合在一起,我们可以试着去描绘,由我们所有人组成的这个行业,作为整体的思想变化。我们向被邀请的朋友抛出了五个最重要的问题,然后把大家的答案收集起来,最终整理成了这篇一万字的文章。

真实世界是复杂的,我最近在读的一本书《模型思维》认为,研究一个对象时,如果不同的人各自独立的使用不同的模型,综合起来得出的结果准确度是最高的。希望这篇文章能起到类似的效果,读完文章的你,也欢迎留言写下你对这五个问题的答案。

诺干年后回过头来看这篇文章,作为2019年的一个句点,中国 Crypto 圈某个重要时段的截影,一定会非常有趣。以这种去中心化的形式作为橙皮书2019年的结尾,一切也刚刚好。以下为正文,Enjoy~

 

2020年BTC会不会出现减半行情?


 

邓超 Hashkey Capital 合伙人

BTC减半和行情是否直接相关有待考察,目前我们的研究数据显示,过去几次减半和BTC价格变化并没有呈现有迹可循的模式。决定BTC价格的因素也并非一尘不变,在数字资产市场早期,决定BTC价格的因素可能只是挖矿成本、供需关系、宏观经济环境等少数几个因素,但随着行业的参与者和投资工具越来越多元化,更大体量的资金涉足其中,更多的专业投资者/交易者加入市场,更多的衍生品(期货、期权)供选择,以及更强有力的监管参与,数字资产二级市场的价格决定因素也会更加动态和多元。

Jan Nervos 联合创始人

50/50 的概率。

潘志彪 币印创始人

很大概率会出现减半行情。但行情启动时间不确定,个人预测倾向于在发生减半之前启动。

Tony X-Order创始人

会,但效果不会有前一次那么明显。我反而更为关注其余一些PoW币种的减半行情,例如ZEC。相对BTC而言这些币种市值更小,且首次减半影响更大。

一个不喜欢出门的投资人

目前来看不是很乐观,不会是一个大规模的行情,可能会有前置的伪行情,主要原因是整体宏观经济环境是防御性态势,导致能进入到币圈的资金量不够。

匿名大玩家

我认为会。减半并不意味着会暴涨,但是会改变价格趋势,2020年均价一定会向上抬升。

Ben imToken 创始人

行情不预测,减半一定成功发生 🙂

匿名投资人

减半行情是没有逻辑的。

熊越 币信研究院院长

老实说,我不知道所谓的减半行情是否一定会出现。现在比特币每个天产出1800个新币,维持币价就需要有相应的资金去把这1800个买掉。减半后,如果其他条件不变,币价确实就应该上涨。但我们不能简单地假设其他条件不变。市场中永远会有许多的意外因素,比如今年的tokenplus,它造成了上半年买盘增加,下半年卖盘增加。

楼霁月 TokenMania创始人

看怎么样界定“减半行情”吧。如果是期待减半能够带来破新高的机会,也就是现在价格涨三倍,从目前的条件来说几乎不可能;如果说是像今年这样的震荡和上涨行情,还是会有的。

王一石 财经内容工作者

会,并且极可能在春节后的1-2月之内发生,但幅度或许比大部分人的预期小。真正的大涨可能会推迟到2021年末。

Suji Maskbook 创始人

我其实觉得这个事情没那种重要。变化不是来自于所谓HODL或者是规则上的减半。国际形势和科技发展影响更大。明年很多国家和地区领导人举行大选,更值得关注。

一旦孤立主义、单边主义发展和逆全球化的倒行逆施到了一个新的地步,恐怕无论减半与否,行情都会很夸张。

潘超 MakerDAO中国区负责人

BTC 的牛市和减半关系不大,主要是市场预期。

民道 dForce 创始人

市场时刻都在进行定价,我认为减半行情在现在的市场定价中充分体现。

Bowen DDEX COO

不会出现减半行情,大家都预测到的行情会不断提前,被提前消费。

郭宇 安比实验室创始人

不会,推测可能会推迟到2021年。

Kenny CoinCare Founder & CEO

BTC 也许会有行情,但是跟「减半」无关。

正如黄金的长期价格不是由矿工的挖矿成本决定的,而是由广义上的市场需求和金融市场交易价格决定的。

当前市场体量下,BTC 产量减半并不对市场交易产生决定性的影响,而更可能是一种群体暗示。

在国际形势复杂多变的环境下,加密货币又是波动性如此大的一种资产,放在一年的周期里,我宁可相信 BTC 是不可测的,随机漫步的。

既然市场本身不可测,那么为什么还有那么多人喜欢预测市场?

a)加密货币市场有着强烈的自我预期管理和实现的特征,基于索罗斯的反身性原理,当市场上大部分人都相信「减半」的故事,也许就真的会带来一波行情;

b)市场无非三种走势:上涨、下跌、横盘,每一种都有 1/3 赌对的可能性。所以如果你看到有人跟你鼓吹明年有「减半行情」,不妨看看这个人是否「skin in the game」,毕竟屁股不但决定脑袋,也决定嘴巴;

c)市场不可测,但市场有周期,所谓「涨久必跌,跌久必涨」,所以长期来看,做个淡定的穿越周期的囤币党,比单纯预测「2020减半行情」这种赌大小游戏要有效得多,前提条件是要保证活得足够久。

祝小翰 Meter 创始人

整体交易区间有可能会震荡上行,但是靠现在比特币的故事,不指望有什么大涨。18M的比特币都已经挖出来了,靠未来3M的储量吸引新用户入场,这个游戏会越来越难玩下去。传统机构大规模进场抬轿子大概率明年也不会发生。

Lin 分布共识 区块链投资人

减半会有行情,但大概率不在大家预期的时间发生,可能在2021年。

Rui LongHash

个人认为会,但不一定是会在减半前发酵。其实减半暴涨的逻辑很简单,就是因为矿工因为算力的持续提升和新产品的迭代导致在减半后使用老款的矿机没办法赚到钱,使用新款的矿机回本周期长,那么就从币价上想办法了,而这种“似曾相识的走势”也在之前的两次减产中完美兑现。

可惜今时不同往日,在距离减半只有4个月的时候,个人认为无论是宏观的经济形势还是微观的筹码博弈上,都未必能支撑的起减半前行情。反倒是减产之后会出现一波慢牛的行情,这波行情可能持续的时间较长,中间可能会出现多次暴跌洗盘,换手将会成为非常正常的事情,同样的不是每个人都能赚到钱。

龙凡 Conflux创始人

世界正经历百年未有之大变局,BTC作为和世界金融形势有一定联动性的资产,一定会有让人意向不到的行情。但这样的行情和减半的关系能有多大,值得商榷。可能对挖矿产业的影响会大过对BTC整个价格的影响。

刘毅 Cdot Network创始人;王超 比特派联合创始人;小岛 matataki.io 创始人

会。

 

2020年政府主导的数字货币会上线么?


 

邓超 Hashkey Capital 合伙人

技术上应该不难,取决于各国政府的监管考量和应用场景是否充分。

Ben imToken创始人

不会。还有点早,最多会有一些 POC 试点实验。

Tony X-Order创始人

会。这就像囚徒困境一样,当你预期到博弈的对手会上线之后,反之会更快速的推动你的行为。任何一个有企图心的国家都不会允许在货币数字化的浪潮里落后,因为这可能意味着在下一个时代里被其他国家数字化地无抵抗收割。

Leo 荷月科技合伙人

纯个人猜测:应该不会全面上线,但是会有很多试点场景

一个不喜欢出门的投资人

DCEP会在上半年上线,能否在两会前还不一定。但是DCEP更强调M0的数字化,和区块链有多大关系不好讲。

匿名大玩家

会。尤其中国的DCEP。其他小国可能跟随,也可能超前。

王冠 前星云链联合创始人

2020年,我们很大概率可以看到由政府主导的法偿数字货币面世,而且一旦有一个政体主导发行数字货币的示范效应,就会有相当一批政体和大型商业机构,处于支付清算系统竞争原因竞相发币。区块链技术发展会进入新纪元,我个人对此很期待。

Suji Maskbook 创始人

和上一个问题一样。严格来说我们要先定义「政府」、「主导」、「数字货币」这三个词。

如果任何一个国家的政府都能算是定义里的政府,那委内瑞拉等小国政府早就已经发币了,但类似「石油币」等只能徒增烦恼。

包括「主导」这个词也充满陷阱。Facebook的Libra肯定不是政府主导的。那难道JP Morgan的美联储是当时的联邦政府主导的么?

如果这个问题的定义是狭义的,2020年有没有能广泛代表某一国民意的合法政府,以超过当时美国政府对于美联储控制程度的力量来主导发行一个符合「点对点」等特性的数字货币。明显不会。

Victor AlphaWallet CEO

会的,电子数字化M0。

潘超 MakerDAO中国区负责人

很难,央行数字货币任重而道远,目前来看未知风险大于潜在收益。现阶段即使上线,也只是一个玩具。

民道 dForce 创始人

2020年政府主导的DCEP预计会在下半年上线。

祝小翰 Meter 创始人

不会。上线了也和币圈无关。

Lin 分布共识 区块链投资人

一些小国政府主导的数字货币可能会上线,但不会有什么实质影响;大国会相对慢一些,影响也更大。

龙凡 Conflux创始人

央行都说了呼之欲出,我们当然期待。不过DECP好像并没有使用区块链技术。

Jan Nervos 联合创始人;王一石 财经内容工作者;

不会。

刘毅 Cdot Network创始人;匿名投资人;楼霁月 TokenMania创始人;小岛 Matataki.io 创始人;郭宇 安比实验室创始人

会/有很大可能/大概率会。

 

回顾2019年,你认为区块链行业发生的最重要一件事是什么?


 

这一题大家的答案出奇的一致,超过70%的朋友认为是Libra以及后续的一系列事件,比如中国DCEP的加速和官方的讲话。当然有些朋友持不同看法:

少平 星火矿池创始人

更多地人尝试使用defi。比如我个人就用过compound,19年才开始尝试。

Tony X-Order创始人

PlusToken。PlusToken告诉所有人,币圈是传销骗局这件事大部分是真的,包括价格在内。此前有一种错误但广泛的说法认为:“传销可以帮助比特币,传销乃是币圈之友”。不论怎么苦口婆心也好、宣传抵制也罢,都不如PlusToken现身说法来的有效。经历PlusToken漫长的出货和币价下跌之后,正常人都不会再对传销抱有幻想,而这样一个事实也在2019年之后深深的刻在我们脑子里:传销收割的不仅是盘圈参与者,更是我们所有人。抵制传销不仅是政府和执法部门的责任,更是区块链行业每一个参与者心底的诉求与渴望。因为抵制传销就是保护我们自己。

潘志彪 币印创始人

19年比较平淡一些,市场相对低位,好像没有特别重大的事情,缓慢的进行着优胜劣汰,很多人在为下一轮牛市布局。

王一石 财经内容工作者

市场上留存的投资者变得越来越理性,同质化项目很难再融到币或钱。

Suji Maskbook 创始人

其实是贸易战。

王渊命 Westar实验室首席架构师

我认为是 Facebook 推出 Libra 。可以先放下 Libra 最后是否能真上线,以及 Libra 这个链本身的模式的争论。单是这一个行为,逼迫以法币为代表的传统金融不得不正面面对以密码货币为代表的去中心化金融。我打过一个比喻,密码货币世界相当于海运,法币世界相当于陆运。在 Libra 之前,两个世界的物资交换主要还是靠搬运工和小码头,有许多摩擦,使得海运的优势无法体现出来。而 Libra 则试图宣布要创建大型港口,将两种运输方式对接起来。所以无论最后 Libra 是否成功,它的意义都是重大的。

潘超 MakerDAO中国区负责人

DeFi 被业界熟知,也证明金融是公链最适合也可能是唯一的应用场景。

Jan Nervos 联合创始人

Ckb launch。

Retric 橙皮书联合创始人

2019年最重要的事是 DeFi 得以幸存,成为了以太坊社区的新故事,也把之前积累的那批开发者的热情承接了过去,让他们能继续 Build 一些东西,而不至于散掉。下半年 BTC 行情的回暖也是很重要,为行业续命。

 

2020年,你所在的行业/赛道会发生什么变化?


 

咕噜 币乎&Mykey 创始人

2020年,稳定币会逐步从原本以交易为核心的应用场景向外扩散(比如稳定币周边的理财类需求),结合用户体验良好的钱包,是区块链行业驶向大众应用的马前卒。

邓超 Hashkey Capital 合伙人

投资领域内,一是专业化,真正具备挖掘、投资和帮助优秀项目成长的专业能力和资源网络的投资机构会被市场更加青睐;二是合规化,区块链投资机构向传统优秀投资机构看齐,构建规范的业务流程,按照属地监管框架规范运营,并得到相关监管机构的资质准许;三是,投资侧重方向转变,由“纯技术故事” 向 “商业故事”转变,区块链技术已诞生超过10个年头,在关注技术突破的同时,投资者会越来越看中基于区块链技术的商业机会。

高素质蓝领 分布式资本合伙人

crypto投资行业,很多基金在这两年投的几乎所有项目会被证明失败。尤其高估值的那些,会亏损严重。

Jan Nervos 联合创始人

很多公链链理论将会被证实或者证伪,我们将看到新的许可链经济模型。

龙凡 Conflux创始人

公链真正的技术突破会在2020发生。

孙立林 PlatOn CEO

2020年参与隐私计算的玩家会更多,应该会有更加严格的合规性出台,AI领域的联邦学习路线与密码学出身的隐私AI路线会有更多碰撞和交融。

潘志彪 币印创始人

挖矿行业会进一步的正规化,规模化,专业化。

Tony X-Order创始人

正规化、产业化、站队化、互联网化。

从历史经验上看,经济下行到一定程度国家就会出手,越来越多的资源会向国家倾斜。与此同时中美争霸的影响也会越来越多体现在Token和产业区块链的领域里。例如Libra系明里暗里拒绝中国资本这样的例子会越来越多见。KYC与合格投资者可能带来短期的阵痛,也会为长期的正规资本入场扫清障碍。稳定币例如Libra,例如各国稳定币融入开放金融也就是Token行业。最有趣的会是互联网与Token的结合,这将吹响下一代金融与互联网结合的号角。

Leo 荷月科技合伙人

在联盟链领域,需求会很大,但是真实有效的场景仍然比较有限,同时靠谱的区块链技术服务方不会太多,一方面是用户并不够区块链,技术服务方不够理解业务。

刘毅 Cdot Network创始人

通用跨链落地,应用链成为智能合约之外,实现DApp的另一种技术路线。

王超 比特派联合创始人

18年下半年的DApp热潮、19年涌现的DeFi和Staking,以及2020年加密资产开始真正侵入传统的支付领域。这三类场景无论哪个迎来更大规模的应用,都会带来钱包在区块链产业链位置的极速攀升,而钱包、尤其去中心化钱包的价值捕获能力也会随之快速增加。

Vincent DappReview创始人

从区块链应用的角度,头部的应用会逐渐建立自己的壁垒和优势,业余小团队和粗制滥造的应用很难再有生存空间,公链大部分会继续陷入生态空白的尴尬境地,中大型厂商的开始有激进的动作。

楼霁月 TokenMania创始人

无风险套利的空间会几乎消失,更多的专业团队会参与,策略也会随之更新。

王一石 财经内容工作者

减半后的挖矿收益急剧减少,尽管币价的潜在增长可以offset一部分矿工的损失,但不可避免的,像2017年那样高额的链上转账手续费还是会出现。

因此除了很多人期待LND会缓解这种现象外,基础层 base layer 的迭代也是必需的。会有更多的钱包和交易所支持BIP84原生隔离验证地址,基本上能降低60%多的手续费。更多onChain钱包商会内置界面化的 CPCF(child-pays-for-parent)、RBF取消链上交易之类的功能,来增加产品的竞争能力。

余弦 慢雾创始人

慢雾科技处于区块链生态里的安全领域,2020 年,我们认为是合规之年,不仅中国在加大力度监管加密货币,世界主要国家也会继续他们的监管策略。留给野战派的时间越来越少,但在全球范围内还有不少空间。无论如何,2020 的合规会对区块链相关项目及安全企业有更高的要求,相关安全服务及安全产品会更加规范化、标准化。来自加密货币世界的收入大概率是会受到很大的影响,但在非加密货币的区块链世界,安全也将迎来更多的挑战,其中最关键的是:

  1. 联盟链场景的安全问题,还未经历公链场景的激烈考验;
  2. 合规框架下的加密货币场景,安全同样是最直接的刚需,不仅是安全防御还有直接贴合合规框架下的反洗钱策略等。


总得来说:合规是好事,这让区块链世界发展更加有序,安全持续大有可为。

郭宇 安比实验室创始人

现代密码学,特别是零知识证明,在区块链底层技术与应用开始得到广泛地关注,密码学与区块链的结合将会成为2020年区块链技术发展的主旋律。

Suji Maskbook 创始人

没有显著的变化。核心硬核的群体可能能感觉到变化的前奏。

Victor AlphaWallet CEO

重运营的,只关注数字货币的钱包团队会死掉一大批。

潘超 MakerDAO中国区负责人

MakerDAO 所在的赛道是 DeFi,2020年对以太坊上的去中心化金融来说会有很大的机遇和挑战,以太坊转 2.0,在 POW 共识的基础上转向 POS,从金融角度来看很重要的一点是 ETH 会带息,将有年化 8%的 staking 收益。我们一定会看到,不同的 POS 矿池作为托管商,发行带息的 ETH 债券(Ether Bond),出现不同利息和风险的ETH 债券,同时,这些债券本身又会作为抵押品,发行和生成新的衍生资产。

民道 dForce 创始人

DeFi的总量会上一个大台阶,DeFi协议之间会更多的互通性,DeFi会逐步下沉成开放金融的新基础设施,打通全球资金市场。

匿名投资人

稳定币大爆发。

小岛 Matataki.io 创始人

会出现用户数百万级的区块链应用。

祝小翰 Meter 创始人

监管会越来越严格。各种合规稳定币由于监管的要求,会提高KYC和AML的审查。DeFi会越来越向规避监管的用途发展。

匿名大玩家

对投资来说,需要关注二级市场,二级市场转暖之后一级市场才有机会。挖矿和交易是不断有新机会的,需要找到合适的策略。

 

自由发挥:关于2020的区块链,你还有什么想法和预测?Anything


 

邓超 Hashkey Capital 合伙人

1) 全球区块链真实用户过亿

2) 全球区块链资产市值过万亿美元

3) 中美两国(or中文社区和英文社区)在区块链领域的“G2”格局更加明显

Jan Nervos 联合创始人

有些细分赛道会洗牌(比如黑马杀进前三),其中钱包有可能,Defi很有可能。

少平 星火矿池创始人

staking + defi合成体会形成。

一个不喜欢出门的投资人

区块链金融基础设施会继续进化,DeFi和CeFi都是如此。隐私性和DAO会是大家持续关注的议题。

潘志彪 币印创始人

目前真正落地很少,甚至可以说只有比特币。对于其他落地方向,依然是谨慎乐观的。

刘毅 Cdot Network创始人

行业逐渐对分片架构失去耐心和信心。

王超 比特派联合创始人

又一代的明星链们面临主网落地后应用场景没有进展和用户极度缺失的尴尬。尴尬中,一部分更加现实的公链们开始大力拥抱监管,希望能够借此进入行业市场和传统金融市场。传统加密社区的力量逐渐被弱化,取而代之的是希望尝试区块链的机构用户、行业专家、专业ISV等群体组成的新社区。只有有技术、有资金、有资源又懂行业的公链才知道那道门在哪。撬起来肯定特别慢也特别难,大部分撬到一半挂了。2020年会有极少数玩家能撬开一道缝,身子还不够挤进去,但能看见门里的美好。

Ben imToken创始人

区块链概念的各种包装形式会出现,资本市场会回暖并追逐一些新的概念,特别是所谓的行业解决方案。

公链孤岛问题,单条链的扩展性问题,监管政策的靴子不落地问题,依然是 2020 区块链面临的掣肘。

不过我相信 DeFi 还会继续高速发展,特别是 DEX 和 Lending 普及率将会大幅提升。伴随着更多的稳健性固收产品的推出,将会吸引更多早期拥抱者。

Leo 荷月科技合伙人

在金融领域,如供应链金融等,用区块链来承载的商业价值将超过5000亿人民币,区块链作为新型金融基础设施逐渐出现雏形。

匿名投资人

区块链从不可证伪走向证明。

龙凡 Conflux创始人

我预测随着监管介入,数字资产交易会有大的洗牌。

楼霁月 TokenMania创始人

山寨币和交易所的熊市可能才刚刚开始。比特币不会有太大价格表现。

余弦 慢雾创始人

合规化是全球各国家的大势所趋,但肯定还会有不少空间容得下野战派及加密自由派。2020 年,我们觉得公链世界与联盟链世界会继续割裂着发展,公链承载加密货币,联盟链承载权力,或者简单粗暴地说:公链是价值网络,联盟链是权力网络。2020 年,坐看百花齐放。

Suji Maskbook 创始人

大部分预期特别高的项目会实际破产。大部分投资人追捧的热点都是错的。

Victor AlphaWallet CEO

更多人能理解区块链的主要用途,Blockchain serves the role of the trusted third parties. 1、一个无摩擦的金融市场;作为互联网的集成点。

王渊命 Westar实验室首席架构师

预测不好说,我说一个期望吧。我希望能在 2020 年密码货币能通过闪电网络等二层网络方案,在线上数字内容支付领域出现典型案例,发挥出真正的优势。我认为区块链技术在数字内容支付领域有真正的技术和效率优势,但需要寻找合适的场景和模式。就如同 Bezos 最早在互联网上创建 amazon 卖书,就是因为互联网更能发挥出书的长尾效应,区块链密码货币领域需要找到自己的『书』。

潘超 MakerDAO中国区负责人

在区块链行业去做预测是一件非常难的事情,但如果从以往被验证的预测来看,我一直以来坚持的一个观点,对公链来说,金融是它最适合的应用场景,可能也是唯一的应用场景。2020年可能会进一步验证这一点。同时我们大概率会看到头部的传统交易所在以太坊网络上发行合成BTC。更进一步,去中心化金融,以及整个区块链行业,会与传统资产进行耦合,而不仅仅是停留在加密世界的资产孤岛。

民道 dForce 创始人

2020年,区块链和数字货币的竞争阵营会发生很大改变,各个国家队作为队员和裁判会更加深入参与行业,大的互联网企业也会以联盟链的形态参与市场竞争。我们将会看到这三股势力完全改变过往的区块链的叙述模式,公链、联盟链、开放金融协议等多样性的生态会更加融合和互通。

小岛 Matataki.io 创始人

ETH 2.0 继续 delay,但新生公链开始陆续上线,一部分技术落后的公链将被淘汰。IEO 热潮衰退,并将会被另一种形式的物种取代。

熊越 币信研究院院长

比特币的Dominance应该会进一步增加,目前是68%。可能会回到75%以上。

Lin 分布共识 区块链投资人

1)全网单日交易量长期突破1000亿美元(目前单日交易量500-700亿左右);

2)USDT发行量达到100亿,其中70%以上在以太链上,10%在Omni,20%在一个黑马公链上;

3)合规美元稳定币发行量超过40亿,包括USDC、Pax、HUSD、BUSD;

4) USDC实质运营将由Coinbase负责,Circle淡出舞台;

5)Libra大概率不会发行,或以一个大幅度修改的版本发行;

6)不会出现一个主流全球稳定币;

7)链上资产抵押的去中心化稳定币(如Dai)迎来繁荣时代,市场占有率稳步增加;

8)一种新的不同于传统交易所业务的业态会抢占一部分交易所市场份额。

Kenny CoinCare Founder & CEO

a)香港、新加坡等金融中心将会推出对加密货币更加友好的合规政策,更多大型传统金融机构开始入场;

b)大型互联网公司将在区块链技术的应用落地和商业化上发挥更大的作用,除了现有的使用区块链技术打通产业场景的 BAAS 服务,也许会有一些让人眼前一亮的 C 端产品冒出来;

c)Defi 生态将会继续保持高速增长,更多复杂的传统金融工具被带入 Defi 领域,用户体验也会得到极大改善,资产方面尤其看好 Defi 上的合成资产;

Mable Multicoin执行董事 & “禅与宇宙维修艺术”公众号贡献者

2019年在很多人看来是一边摸索一边迷茫的一年:有场景的应用似乎对底层标的价格的影响并不是正相关的,而庞氏设计的标的却反而一再在回报上奖赏早期捕捉机会的人;像“去中心化组织”这类有意思的主题也常常只能局限于形而上的讨论,遑论投资的机会。这让人想到霍华德马克思谈到过的周期从来不按预计走,狂欢时音乐的戛然而止可能猝不及防,而有时低谷比想象的的更长,创业者和资金如果没有在最糟糕的谷底死去,也可能被过早的接盘和抄底、过于漫长的冬天消耗殆尽,或者在黎明前终于下决心离场。

关于2020年,已经看到了一些很有潜力能够捕捉“起量”的好产品,比如一些不纠结于“政治正确性”与绝对去中心化,放眼于将多元的资产端(强中心的机构和分散个体)带到一起的的开放金融解决方案。在2019的年末真正领悟到什么是“黑猫白猫抓到老鼠都是好猫”对于一个产品走向大众的重要性。

HBO拍摄的关于Elizabeth Holmes的纪录片里提到了硅谷流传的创业公司“Fake it until you make it”的理念,而由于一些主流机构的认可,这句话对于一些过去看来价值与价格并不匹配的去中心化协议同样适用,至少在短期可能改变了它们的基本面,但同样不排除只是延长了泡沫的寿命,就像媒体们对Theranos的一再期待。经过了两年的起起伏伏,行业里的人已经没那么醉心于等待泡沫褪去再重新进场,因为因为泡沫从不可能完全洗干净,而新的进步往往也建立在从过往泡沫的成功吸取的经验。

郭宇 安比实验室创始人

2020年,会有更多的明星项目让我们大吃一惊,突破期望值的底线。想到两年前,所有人都在疯狂撰写各种违反客观规律的白皮书,颇有点魔幻现实主义。科技进步虽然越来越快,但也要一步一步踏踏实实走出来。

2020年,将会有更多更专业的团队入场,会出现多个学科融合的新领域,会有更加激动人心的研究成果。

Tony X-Order创始人

希望X-Order可以活下去。

匿名大玩家

2020是量变到质量的一年,下一轮周期的转折之年。19年积蓄的诸多力量会在20年释放。

Rui LongHash

1、Web3不会到来,但会有更多像是Maskbook这样的项目通过区块链的某项特性给予用户更便捷的体验。

2、Defi的时代不会到来,现在大家期待Defi,和去年底大家期待Dapp是一个道理,只是熊市从业者的自High而已。金融本质上需要用产品获胜,是需要强中心化运营的,去中心化并不适用。

3、利用数字货币的传销会越来越多,但也会越来越下沉和隐蔽。

4、老的一批山寨币会逐渐交还给社区,实现软跑路,但因为筹码的分散市值不会出现大的影响。

5、会有一批新的聪明的山寨币像Chainlink一样谋求更高的市值排名,在市场中可持续的获取资金。

匿名者N

现在的分布式商业的创新还是在理解和酝酿的过程中,20年如果有人很好的把分布式商业的概念用落地实例解释了,那么 区块链和分布式商业的春天才能真的到来。

中国政府对区块链技术的站台,总体对区块链利好的力量有限。但中国的数字货币看上去 2020年底落地的可能性变大。不知道这个会对 libra 有什么影响。而且我觉得中国数字货币的形式需要我们更有想象力。中国新的数字货币与人民币的关系,是个很有想象里空间的事情。

真的区块链应用落地会和现在的区块链应用差别很大。

李阳 橙皮书创始人

更多组织搭建自己的区块链,利用现有的做链工具,就像早期的各种局域网一样。

分布式存储方面会有显著进展。

明年和今年类似,是相对平静的一年。