Bitcoin Breaks $9,000 In Latest Landmark Price Point

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7 Majors Signs Confirming The Bitcoin Bull-Market Is Back

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7 Majors Signs Confirming The Bitcoin Bull-Market Is Back


Analysts like Tone Vays may be calling for a pullback but here are seven major indicators that the Bitcoin bull market is officially back.


1. Fundamentals Testing ATHs

No market reaches maturity until it’s been through a few bull and bear cycles. That grueling ‘crypto winter’ did a great job of separating the wheat from the chaff. The get-rich-quick speculators exited and left Bitcoin to carry on building.

Not only has BTC usage been steadily rising over the last 16 months, but the hash rate is now testing all-time highs at almost 60 EH/s and the average block size is now well over 1MB at 1.26MB.

2. Google Trends Spiking Again

OK, so Google Trends may not be screaming Bitcoin FOMO just yet, but despite a moderate lull, search results for Bitcoin are starting to climb again. Let’s not forget the major uptick on May 26 when the Bitcoin price skyrocketed.  

So far we pretty much know that this latest run is being driven by institutions. If Tom Lee is right, serious retail FOMO will kick in any moment once the price hits $10k.

3. Institutions Are Readying for the Bitcoin Bull Market

This time around, Wall Street is firmly in on the action with a seemingly insatiable appetite for Bitcoin. The largest cryptocurrency asset manager Grayscale bought over 11,000 BTC last month.

With 54,000 BTC currently mined every 30 days, that means it’s scooping up some 21 percent of the monthly supply of BTC gearing up for the bull run.

gbtc wall street bitcoin

4. Bitcoin Accumulation Risen Over the Last year

According to research by Diar analytics firm, Bitcoin accumulation has been rising steadily over the past 12 months. The number of wallet addresses with between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has increased by 7 percent.

Coinbase is holding a massive 760,000 BTC in its cold wallet storage facilities. And more than one-quarter (26 percent) of all circulating BTC is currently dispersed among various large-volume wallets. Again, this all looks like major preparation for the official Bitcoin bull market.

5. Trading Volume Is Setting Records

Institutional trading volumes are setting new records every month this year. On top of that, yesterday South Korea set a new high on Bitcoin trading volume on LocalBitcoins at over 218 million South Korean Won ($183 million).

South Korea shows Bitcoin bull market is here

6. Big Names Are Building on Bitcoin

When it comes to big names, you don’t get much larger than Microsoft. With its surprise announcement at Consensus this month that it will be building on the Bitcoin blockchain, along with Whole Foods, eBay, and Facebook, cryptocurrencies are being rolled out to the masses. It’s just a question of time.

7. Just Look at That Price

May 2019 has been one hell of a month for BTC price 00, making hyperbolic gains. As cryptocurrency trader and investor Josh Rage commented, with one small push further if Bitcoin finishes the month at $8975 or higher it will have made a 70.37+ percent gain. That would also make it Bitcoin’s best month on record since November 2013.

Buckle up folks, the signs don’t lie, the Bitcoin bull market is already in full swing.

Is the bitcoin bull market officially back? Share your thoughts below!


Images via Shutterstock

Troubles at MakerDAO Are Symptomatic of Shifting Narratives in Crypto

Troubles at MakerDAO Are Symptomatic of Shifting Narratives in Crypto

A lot has been going on at Maker over the past few months, and not all of it bullish. In the first, the protocol has experienced a series of stability fee hikes on its collateral lending product that has the community up in arms. After that, the team’s leadership has seen a number of members leave the organization due to conflicting visions.

BTCManager finally sat down with Maker president and COO Steven Becker to find out what’s going on behind the scenes.

Breaking Down DeFi

Maker’s most promising product is its collateralized debt position, otherwise known as a CDP. This is a smart contract that operates on the Ethereum network in which users can put ether (ETH) in and get Dai (DAI), Maker’ stablecoin, in return.

Because ETH is notoriously volatile, the DeFi narrative demands that a degree of stability is introduced to build any of the world-toppling finance 2.0 infrastructures.

Flow Diagram

A simplified infographic of how CDPs are opened and closed.

(Source: Medium)

Unlike other stablecoins, DAI is staked to ETH rather than a physical asset or fiat currency. The stablecoin does, however, aim to maintain the same price as USD. There are two mechanisms that Maker implements to ensure that Maker does not go above or below $1. Regarding the former, the protocol incentivizes users to take out more DAI in exchange for ETH. Increasing the circulating supply when demand for DAI tokens is low helps keep the price from crossing the $1 threshold.

Conversely, if the price of ETH drops, Maker prevents the price of DAI from dipping below $1 by selling the ETH in a user’s CDP before the ETH moves below the amount of Dai for which it was exchanged.

Throw in an additional “stability fee,” and Maker has created a decentralized loan platform with the fee operating like an interest rate on the DAI a user borrowed.

To conclude, Maker makes it possible to evade the volatility of ETH by offering users DAI in exchange. This ETH can be recuperated and the CDP closed once the DAI is returned. Holders of DAI also need to pay a stability fee for the ability to make this exchange.

In the case of upward price swings, DAI recalibrates by incentivizing users to exchange more ETH for DAI. During more bearish market conditions, the protocol closes CDPs and sells the available ETH. For all intents of purposes, this definition of MakerDAO as a loan platform has been effective in conveying the protocol’s potential.

According to the company’s COO and president, Steven Becker, however, it has limited the community’s ability to think about what is ultimately possible.

“Although it looks like a loan, the protocol has a ton of other uses,” said Becker. “This could be from debt structuring, to supply chain finance. It could really be like the grease of the economy.”

An immediate consequence of a CDP is that users have begun exchanging ETH for DAI in order to buy more ETH. Gregory DiPrisco wrote in an introductory Medium post that users can “buy ether on margin.” When users trade on decentralized exchanges that have integrated with Maker, they can “bet on the price of ether with 2x, 3x, or more.”

Although the possibilities appear endless when working with the Maker protocol, its community has focused most of its attention on the ever-changing stability fee.

The price of ether over the past 18 months has been unforgiving in its descent and as such, MKR holders have voted on a series of hikes on the stability fee. As mentioned above, this fee helps keep the stablecoin, DAI, pegged to USD.

What began as a mere .5 percent fee has jumped all the way to 19.5 percent before recently dropping down to 17.5 percent as of May 28, 2019.

Becker explained that while the increases have been harsh there are a few considerations to keep in mind. In the first, when the price of ETH is dropping, the only way to keep the peg of DAI is to close CDPs and make DAI creation unenticing. Second, it’s critical that users don’t think of CDPs as loans.

This is just one possibility, of course, but Becker outlined that leveraged speculation and loans are a very limited way of thinking about the Maker protocol. In fact, the use of “interest rate” as a term instead of stability fee has contributed to many of the misconceptions surrounding CDPs and the MakerDAO.

“The financial products that are possible with the protocol hinge on keeping the DAI peg. For instance, if people want to send something as simple as remittances, they need a stable digital currency,” Becker said. “You could even make credit default swaps with Maker, but that would still depend on this peg.”

Two forces are now emerging within the Maker community. CDP holders have indicated that the “interest rate” on their DAI is higher than most traditional bank loans, while MKR voters and folks like Becker are looking to push the envelope of the emerging digital economy.

Other commentators, like Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, see the MakerDAO as merely a component of this economy. In combining Maker’s stablecoin with market-making platform Compound and Uniswap Exchange, collateral could be established via the exchange’s liquidity.

Thought exercises of this nature paint a better picture of what a totally decentralized economy could look like.

The difficulty of course in connecting a series of decentralized technologies is the regulatory barriers in place. Herein lies the recent leadership conflict at Maker as well.

Decentralize or Die

As first reported by The Block in April 2019, members of the Maker DAO team ended up leaving the startup following a dispute over where the business was heading. A faction formed called the Purple Pill to displace the reported centralizing force of founder Rune Christensen.

Christensen allegedly forced members of the MakerDAO Ecosystem Growth Foundation (MEGF) to resign as well as taking control of the approximately ~$130 million development fund. Prior to this, multiple stakeholders had to reach a consensus on how these funds were to be allocated. Christensen eventually demanded that these individuals hand over their private keys so that he could control Maker’s direction.

Becker’s take on the matter outlined that the conflict was more than the binary decentralize-vs-centralize trope. As someone with a long resume in the traditional finance world, Becker explained that the same conflict could be reduced to abiding by regulations or “pure anarchy.”

“It’s much easier to become a licensed company when you play by the rules. This means following existing laws that are already in place,” he said. “No one will take you seriously until that happens.”

When long-time observers of the crypto and blockchain space compare these arguments with the characteristics of many in the Bitcoin community, one can be sure that the narrative is shifting. The concerns at MakerDAO are merely a symptom of this shift too.

In 2019, it is less about overthrowing the financial system, but instead using novel technologies to optimize how it functions. The demand for a formal ETF product is a high priority for many, while still others wax positive over groups like Fidelity and Goldman Sachs opening up crypto-specific trading desks.

But, as with any open-source technology, its vision is entirely up for grabs and accessible to anyone, even bankers. And with crypto spring finally blooming, the space is overflowing with suggestions about which narrative will best attract new users.

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Bitcoin May be up 14.9% But Tom Lee Expects “Real FOMO” after $10,000

  • BTC is steady above $8,500, add 14.9 percent
  • Prices in an uptrend but real FOMO is after $10,000 says Tom Lee

Tom Lee is an ardent Bitcoin supporter. Contrary to the mainstream view, he believes real FOMO for BTC will begin after prices rally past the psychological $10,000 mark. Currently, BTC is up 14.9 percent from last week’s close.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Fundamentals

A healthy blend of growing awareness, coupled with the involvement of industry heavyweights and improving infrastructure, is somehow giving Bitcoin momentum. At some point this week, there was an expected reversal from the $9,000 mark. That is normal. Prices do expand and shrink, depending on supply and demand dynamics.

However, it is about the resilience of buyers. How they will maintain demand, and keep prices above key supports is what counts. After all, demand is a measure of participation. Although we cannot refute that buyers are back as trading volumes surge, Fundstrat Global Head Analyst Tom Lee is calling for patience.

While responding to a tweet from Financial Times’ Adam Samson, he said the real FOMO trigger is when BTC break above the $10,000 psychological mark. To him, that’s when BTC will edge past “level 10 FOMO.” The level is from Fundstrat’s study that compartmentalizes the level of BTC investor involvement from 1 to 10.

Per Tom Lee’s calculations, that is when “a price level only seen 3 percent of all days [and] mathematically equivalent to exceeding $BTC $4,500 in 2017.”

Candlestick Arrangement

Bitcoin BTC

Stable above $8,500, BTC is in an uptrend. At the time of writing, the world’s most valuable digital asset is shrugging off sellers. It is up 14.9 percent from week to date, thereby affirming the presence of optimistic buyers.

In line with previous BTC/USD price analyses, traders should search for loading opportunities on dips. Modest targets lie at $9,000, which is this week’s high. However, any clearance could see BTC surge to $10,000 or higher by the end of Q3 2019.

Technically, BTC is within a breakout pattern and although in consolidation within May 26th trade range, rejection of lower prices hints of underlying demand.

In that case, risk-averse traders can wait for close above $9,000 at the back of high trading volumes exceeding recent averages.

Technical Indicator

Because of candlestick arrangement, May 26th bull bar anchors this BTC trade plan. Safe the low trading volumes, it is wide-ranging, and probably is laying the foundation that could see prices expand beyond $9,000.

In a similar fashion, the conservative traders, as aforementioned, can only initiate longs if accompanying trading volumes propelling BTC above $9,000 exceeds 19k.

Chart courtesy of Trading View. Image Courtesy of Shutterstock

TRON Foundation Announces BitTorrent File System (BTFS) Protocol, TRX Up Over 3%

On Thursday (May 30), TRON Foundation (“TRON”) announced that BitTorrent Inc. (“BitTorrent”), a San Francisco-based company that is a leader in peer-to-peer file sharing, will be incorporating the BitTorrent File System (BTFS) protocol to “allow users to receive and host storage on their computers with other individuals and businesses.”

TRON acquired BitTorrent on 24 July 2018, and launched the BTT token on Binance Launchpad on January 28. As TRON Founder and CEO Justin Sun explained in an Ask Me anything (AMA) session on February 27, in the few weeks that have gone by since the public sale of BTT tokens took place, TRON has rewarded TRX holders with BTT in one of the largest ever airdrops, as well as managed to get BTT listed “on major exchanges and wallets to make BTT available to most people.”

The BitTorrent Protocol

The BitTorrent protocol is “a communication protocol for peer-to-peer file sharing (P2P) which is used to distribute data and electronic files over the Internet.” Sending or receiving files is done via a BitTorrent client, i.e. a program that implements this protocol, that is running on an internet-connected computer.

Here is how Wikipedia describes the BitTorrent protocol, which was designed in 2001 by American computer programmer Bram Cohen:

“The BitTorrent protocol can be used to reduce the server and network impact of distributing large files. Rather than downloading a file from a single source server, the BitTorrent protocol allows users to join a ‘swarm’ of hosts to upload to/download from each other simultaneously. The protocol is an alternative to the older single source, multiple mirror sources technique for distributing data, and can work effectively over networks with lower bandwidth.” 

BitTorrent Clients

The two most popular BitTorrent clients outside China are “BitTorrent” and “uTorrent”, both of which are currently owned and maintained by San Francisco-based BitTorrent Inc., which was founded in 2004, and acquired last year by TRON Foundation, with Justin Sun confirming this acquisition in a letter to the TRON community published in TRON’s Medium blog on 24 July 2018. Here is what the TRON CEO said in this letter about the BitTorrent Protocol and BitTorrent Inc.:

“It is the first decentralized Internet protocol with large-scale global application. Even today, the BitTorrent protocol retains its status as the world’s largest decentralized protocol, once transmitting 40% of daily Internet traffic. BitTorrent created and shaped the protocol, with 70% of BitTorrent users using the product. The company aims to decentralize the Web by promoting and further developing the BitTorrent protocol…

Through this acquisition, BitTorrent and TRON will combine forces, with the TRON US team merging with the BitTorrent team. BitTorrent possesses world-class technical talent and solid experience in decentralized protocol technology. Combining the robust capabilities of the two teams will take the technology behind the TRON ecosystem to a whole new level.”

The BitTorrent Token (BTT)

Here is how the BitTorrent Token whitepaper introduces this TRC-10 token:

“TRON Foundation and BitTorrent Foundation are introducing a new cryptographic token called BTT along with an extended version of the BitTorrent protocol in order to create a token-based economy around the usage of networking, bandwidth and storage on hundreds of millions of computers on the internet.”

Binance’s research report on BTT had this to say:

The project plans to utilize the BTT in more utility cases beyond the current sharing of bandwidth, expanding access to more services including general storage, computation, and resource availability…

The token will initially be used in BitTorrent clients as payment in exchange for requesting upstream bandwidth. Usage will be extended to additional capabilities including purchasing content, tipping live streaming performers, and crowdfunding the creation of new works.”

BitTorrent Speed

The BTT whitepaper explains the motivation for finding a way to encourage BitTorrent users to continue making a file available to other users once they have finished downloading it:

“BitTorrent Speed is a feature that will be integrated into future BitTorrent and μTorrent clients and will enable users to advertise their bids within a swarm and trade BTT in exchange for continued prioritized access to seeds. The intended result is that peers will choose to seed for longer, leading to better swarm longevity and faster download speeds for all swarm participants.”

On Thursday (January 17th), BitTorrent Inc. announced that it expected to make BitTorrent Speed “available by summer on the popular µTorrent Classic Windows client.” It also said that “BitTorrent Speed will become available on other BitTorrent clients by late 2019.”

What Is BTFS and What Does TRON Plan to Do With It?

According to the press release shared with CryptoGlobe, BTFS is “both a protocol and network implementation that provides a content-addressable, peer-to-peer mechanism for storing and sharing digital content in a decentralized file system.” Users of BitTorrent Speed  will be rewarded with BTT “in exchange for seeding and bandwidth, enabling faster downloads.” This means that users “now have the opportunity to be a part of the tokenized decentralized internet and support content creators all around the world from their torrent clients.”

BTFS, which is a “variant of the open-source InterPlanetary File System (IPFS) protocol,” started internal testing in late May, and in Q3 2019, the BTFS Mainnet will be available for public access; this will “power all TRON decentralized applications that require a decentralized storage network.” The full implementation is expected to be ready by end of Q1 2020.

TRON CEO Justin Sun had this to say about BTFS:

“BTFS is a continuing step in our mission to create a decentralized internet that allows everyone to share in the wealth of web commerce. We’re creating a platform with BTFS, BitTorrent Speed blockchain integration and the BTT utility token to let users quickly and privately interact with each other around the world without a middleman or government intervention.”

 

Allegedly Illegal Crypto Mining Operations Uncovered By Chinese Authorities: Report

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Allegedly Illegal Crypto Mining Operations Uncovered By Chinese Authorities: Report

Authorities in China’s Sichuan province have reportedly launched an investigation into local bitcoin (BTC) mining operations that might not have obtained government approval.

According to a state-owned news media outlet, the land-resource bureau, situated in Sichuan’s Garze County, uncovered several bitcoin mining farms, located at hydropower station sites, that had allegedly not been permitted to conduct operations.

Allegedly Illegal Construction of Mining Farms Uncovered

As noted by local sources, the Economic and Information Bureau in Garze County, a mountainous region with a humid continental climate, has established a committee with other local investigation agencies. The committee has conducted an investigation into the allegedly illegal construction related to various unregistered crypto mining farms.

Commenting on the matter, a representative from the nation’s Economic and Information Bureau noted: 

We are still investigating on the issue and can’t disclose more details on the overall situation.

Mining Farms Taking Advantage of Cheap Electricity

As confirmed by local news outlets, the mining farms have been constructed at hydropower stations located alongside the Dadu river in the northwestern region of Sichuan province. Presumably, the mining operations are being conducted in the area due to the availability of abundant and relatively cheap electricity.

Notably, Chinese authorities uncovered a large bitcoin mining setup located inside a hydropower plant known as Ginkang station. The facility reportedly has a capacity to operate 50,000 units of BTC mining machines. Currently, the unregistered facility is utilizing 60% of its total mining capacity.

Chinese Miners Anticipating High Rate of Return Due to Rainy Season

According to a worker from the region’s land resource bureau:

If [a Bitcoin mining facility] is built within the authorized area of a power station for electricity consumption, we need to verify if their usage is legal. If it’s outside the authorized area, then it needs to be dealt with as the construction was not approved.

As noted by CoinDesk, the summer rainy season is approaching in China’s Aba and Garze counties, and local mining farm operators are planning to take advantage of cheap electricity rates – in order to profitably mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

In November 2018, blockchain-related research firm Coinshare had released a report in which it revealed that approximately 50% of the world’s Bitcoin network hashrate had come from mining operations based in the Sichuan province.

Bitcoin Network Hashrate Sees 80% Increase

As cryptoasset prices have begun to recover, the Bitcoin network’s hashrate has surged to almost 58,000 petahashes per second. Notably, this represents an 80% increase from December 2018. At that time, over 600,000 mining units reportedly suspended operations due to the extended bear market that lasted throughout 2018. 

Clarifying that Garze County does not allow companies to setup Bitcoin mining farms in the area, a spokesperson from the Economic and Information Bureau said: 

We don’t allow outside investment in the area to be involved in bitcoin. Even for big data projects, we will conduct an investigation into the nature of the data involved before making a decision.

Max Keiser: Bitcoin Going to $100K as Banks ‘Never Been in Worse Shape’

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Max Keiser: Bitcoin Going to $100K as Banks ‘Never Been in Worse Shape’


The one and only Max Keiser, once again spoke to Bitcoinist. He shares his thoughts on where he thinks Bitcoin price is now headed, the US-China trade war and the ‘unfolding’ global economic crisis. 


Max Keiser: I See Bitcoin Hitting $100K

Bitcoinist: Everyone’s talking about this US-China ‘trade war’ – what role do you see Bitcoin playing in all of this?   

Max Keiser: Keiser Report identified the twin trends of Deglobalization and Dedollarization a few years ago when Trump was running for President and now confirmed as President. The post-war period of global monetary cooperation (and Central Bank collusion*) are over.

The joint-race to the bottom with competitive fiat devaluations to boost exports – and now negative interest rates (covering more than $10 trillion and some mortgage bonds) – has reached its nadir.

Countries like China and Russia are pulling out of the $USD currency hegemony and easing into bi-lateral trade outside the dollar. And we’ll see more announcements like Russia and China’s recently about introducing a gold-backed crypto coin.

This means China and Russia are bringing back a Gold standard. This means curtains for the $USD. GREAT NEWS FOR BITCOIN AND GOLD. 

How will it affect its value and will these trade tensions accelerate another economic crisis?   

The crisis unfolding now is less about trade and more about the next leg of the global bank crisis. $DB looks like the new Lehman. Contagion will be fierce and quick. 

You’ve been recently doubling down on your past prediction of $28K in the short-term for Bitcoin price. What makes you so confident that BTC will break its ATH so soon?   

To be clear, when Bitcoin was at $20,000, I said, $28,000 is in play. Traders scoffed at this when we had the pullback to $3,200, but $28,000 is still in play.

I see Bitcoin hitting $100,000, like I said back in 2011 when it was $1, and I don’t consider the recent 80% pullback (the fourth I’ve seen) significant. Everything is right on schedule. $28,000 is still in play. 

Specifically, what events could be a catalyst for this potential surge (e.g. EU elections, Brexit, central banks buying stocks etc.)

Bitcoin, as hinted in the Genesis Block, is an attack on Central Banks, and fiat money. As banks collapse, adoption, price, hashrate, difficulty, all go up. Banks have NEVER been in worse shape. Ipso facto, BTC continues on its monster rally. 

BTC price is up almost 50% since US Congressman Brad Sherman called for a blanket ban on Bitcoin. Is this a coincidence or is there something to this?   

Everyone I follow on Twitter thanked Brad Sherman profusely for telling the world how vulnerable the $USD is and how to escape that risk: Buy Bitcoin. 

What are your thoughts on Kik’s current battle with the SEC? What implications will this have on the crypto markets moving forward?

This was my tweet in that: Regarding Kik

Modern history of financial engineering: Wall St. “innovates” then lobbies law makers to change laws or write new laws, or face a financial crisis (made possible by their ‘Too Big To Fail’ status). Bitcoin will repeat this pattern as BTC whales muscle law makers to bend.

You previously stated that the Bitcoin protocol will become ‘self-aware’ at block 300,000. Could you elaborate?

I noticed around block 300,000 that the protocol was manipulating people’s behavior via the incredible incentives and game theory baked in. People are beyond addicted to Bitcoin. They are essentially giving their conscious and unconscious minds – along with hashing power – up for adoption by the protocol.

We are all becoming Satoshi’s children.

You can speculate on why and how – and I have, and maybe I’ll write more about this. Suffice to say, our species needs to start coming to terms with the presence of this self-aware parallel intelligence impacting our lives and our world. 

Why do you think your good friend, gold-bug Peter Schiff, refuses to acknowledge the benefits of Bitcoin despite his own business accepting btc to buy gold?

I don’t think about Peter Schiff anymore. He’s become irrelevant. He’s got a cool house in Puerto Rico, though.

What do you think about Facebook’s announced GlobalCoin? Same as JPMCoin or will it help facilitate Bitcoin/crypto adoption?

It’s a payment rail. It will cut into established payment rails. It’s not Gold 2.0. It looks like, however, that $FB talked with the Winklevoss Twins and appear to have agreed to carve up the world; $FB takes payments, WT take Gold. 

Zuckerberg Consults Rivals Winklevoss to Push Facebook’s ‘GlobalCoin’

You hold quite a few patents yourself. What are your thoughts on Craig Wright’s attempts to patent certain aspects of Bitcoin?

Yes. My patents have a greater claim than anything Craig has ever come up with regarding Bitcoin. I suspect he’ll go insane and blow his brains out one day, as a few suffering from BDS (Bitcoin Derangement Syndrome) have already, in one way or another. 

What developments or upcoming events in Bitcoin are you most looking forward to this year?

CryptoSpings in Palm Springs will be the greatest. It’s all about Lightning! and watermelon margaritas. Also, Nomi Prins’ book “Collusion.”

Thanks again for yor thoughts Max!

What do you think of Max Keiser’s comments? Share your thoughts below!


Images via Shutterstoc

比特币猛涨,但区块链一脸“冷漠”

自去年12月开始盘旋底部已久的比特币,今年以来似乎有了燎原之势,一路高歌猛进,开了挂般地冲向了“暴涨”的快车道。“惊人上涨”、“猝不及防”等词成为了多家媒体形容比特币行情的热门词汇。

然而,攀得越高,便有可能跌得越狠。

比特币飞速上涨的行情,仿佛让人回到了2017年末至2018年初一路窜升逼近两万美元的时期。但随后一年时间,比特币面临多次腰斩,不可置信地跌入了谷底,加密货币由此进入了寒冬。

彼时,基于与币价说不清道不明的关系,区块链行业也从风口上摔落。随着项目关闭、行业凋零,大部分的区块链公司开始裁员,收敛过冬。

区块链技术早前因为比特币的火热进入了人们的视野并备受关注,却也一度因为各种“山寨币”等泡沫项目的出现,被无故打上了“传销”、“诈骗”的标签。

比特币行情遇冷,区块链行业却如脱胎换骨般推陈出新,大厂纷纷入局,小厂潜心做技术。在中央的扶持和政策的推行下,产业区块链时代到来。

时过境迁,比特币与区块链技术的关系将如何演化?面对币市猝不及防的火热行情,区块链企业将如何对待?

 

比特币为何“猛涨”?


 

2019年5月28日凌晨,Fibos创始人响马发朋友圈,称与比原链CEO段新星聊天,都不希望牛市来得太快。彼时,比特币价格一度突破了8900美元关口。

据tadamoon网站统计的Bitfinex持仓比例数据显示,4月份以来 ,比特币高速攀升的过程中,加密货币开始陷入了“空军”与“多军”的疯狂厮杀:

4月23日,比特币价格短时突破5500美元时,看空者居多;之后比特币一边被看空,一边却震荡上涨,空头与多头巅峰对决出现在5月10日比特币突破6300美元时;此后的上涨更是出乎人意料,5月14日比特币短时突破8000美元,盘旋在7200-8000美元间,5月27日凌晨冲破8800美元。

图片来自todamoon

 

比特币价格经历了魔幻般的半年,币价的上涨已经成为了事实,但为什么会涨,之后还会不会继续涨,才是市场分析的重点。技术面已然看不懂,究其原因还得从基本面入手分析。

据公开资料显示,比特币的拉升主要归于四个原因:场外大机构、大资金的入场;紧张的国际局势;比特币减半;巨头对于加密货币的兴趣与探索。

此次比特币的上涨,存在背后资金操纵市场的嫌疑。有消息称,近期比特币网络发生了9笔大额交易,交易额超过27029枚比特币,其中有一笔为1500枚比特币流入了Bitfinex交易平台。

除此之外,彭博社报道称,全球最大的资产管理公司富达投资旗下的Fiidelity Digital Assets将推出比特币交易服务。纽交所母公司旗下加密货币交易所Bakkt,也宣布将推出符合联邦法规的比特币期货合约。

而近期国际贸易的紧张局势,股市萎靡,使得避险资产备受青睐,比特币成为了最重要的避险选择之一。除了外部原因,比特币2020年将迎来第三次减半,市场对于减半的预期也会推动币价的上涨。

国家信息中心经网管理中心副主任、区块链经济学者朱幼平对锌链接分析称,比特币上涨的因素很多,其中不乏区块链行业出现很多扎实的创新。

2018年比特币行情低迷时,区块链技术的创新并没有停止。“技术上,围绕提高TPS的许多创新取得明显进展。共识从POW,到POS、DPOS、PBFT等,甚至把AI引用到共识算法里,进步很大。闪电网络、隔离见证、分层、分片、并链等各种技术,都有建树。”

朱幼平称,摩根大通的JPMcoin,日本瑞穗J-Coin,Facebook计划GlobalCoin等,我国腾讯的区块链发票等等,极大地刺激了市场想象力。“比特币不会归零,主要原因有区块链信仰支撑,跌多了就会涨是正常逻辑。”

 

没有了比特币,区块链行业照样能运转


 

区块链技术最初进入人们的视野是依托于比特币等加密货币的火热,如今,区块链行业的发展倒成了加密货币行情的支撑。

那么,比特币的上涨对于区块链企业意味着什么?

响马向锌链接表示,很多好的、真正做事的企业这时其实并没有这么快把事情做好、做完。“牛市来临市场太嘈杂,真正做事的企业还会面临人员成本、市场成本、用户成本上升,对于不愁资金的企业,寒冬反而能熬走更多浮躁的竞争对手”。

2017年九四监管之后,大部分国内区块链企业已经合规化。经锌链接了解,这些企业却更多认为,币价的上涨对于企业的发展关系不大,更勿谈正面或负面影响,“没有了比特币,区块链行业照样能运转”。

图片来源于unsplash

趣链科技直接拒绝锌链接采访,说是二者关系确实不大。

平安壹账通的区块链研发与业务部总经理陆一帆对锌链接表示,比特币是比特币,合规企业是合规企业。“比特币就是个愿赌服输的赌场,它的涨跌取决于信徒的多少,信徒在盘在。驱动区块链行业发展的因素区块链技术帮助合规企业赚法币。”

云象区块链联合创始人俞之贝认为,现在和两年前不一样,大家对区块链有了更清晰的认识。比特币暴涨和区块链技术的应用没有直接的关系,区块链的关注度或许会重新提升,但在应用层面,大家都会持理性的态度。解决痛点的,才是真正有价值的应用。

金丘科技联合创始人韩根认为,区块链行业的发展需要主要依赖于技术研发和治理结构的创新,需要提升协作的效率,减少信用的摩擦。

思源集团首席科学家、北京思源互联科技有限公司董事长李天白称,当前靠币的升值造富的模型是小概率事件。所以,比特币上涨跟随区块链行业的整体回暖。但行业的发展,主要看能否在一些关键的价值领域有明显的突破。

对此,中国计算机学会计算机安全专业委员会主任严明对锌链接解释称,比特币作为虚拟货币的一种,在监管上存在不少问题,包括洗钱,欺诈,金融管理,跨境流动监管等方面,其赖以生存的技术支撑主要是区块链,由此给区块链带来了不太好的名声。这是许多区块链的企业想要与其划清目标的原因。

 

区块链行业发展的根本驱动力


 

比特币价格上涨或许依赖于区块链技术的发展,但区块链产业发展的驱动力,早已与比特币等加密货币价格上涨毫无关联,走出一条独立发展的路径。

共识机制的创新,闪电网络、隔离见证、分层、分片、并链等各种技术的建树,或许有早前因为加密货币而收获颇丰的公司一起参与研发,但真正将区块链技术落地应用,更多是互联网巨头公司的介入、以及专门提供区块链技术服务的“合规性”区块链公司,而这些公司大部分都不关心币价的行情。

2019年是区块链应用的元年。据锌链接调查研究,与区块链技术密切相关的重要领域,包括银行的清算结算、跨境支付、供应链金融、物流领域、数字身份认证、产品溯源、司法版权认证、隐私安全,以及与5G时代各前沿技术的智慧交通、智能城市、智能家居等领域都在潜心研发。

这些领域大部分都有典型项目实现了落地,如摩根大通的稳定币对应的清算结算,腾讯电子发票对应的智能交通、智慧城市建设,阿里巴巴的商品溯源、跨境物流,腾讯微企链、趣链科技的供应链金融业务等。

严明告诉锌链接,不同的出发点,动力源不一样。确实存在以支持比特币等虚拟货币来赚钱为目的的应用,但区块链的应用有它更有意义的方面。

“当前主要缺乏那类没有或难以建立中心的数据安全应用。彼此没有在一个共同的平台,没有建立联系,而又需要在保证各自数据安全的情况下交互的用户的需要。这类具体应用场景会在很多领域有需求。”

严明认为,并非所有领域都需要区块链技术的应用,因此需要理性对待。市场需求,如“保护各自数据的自组网的需求”这些描绘的可能前景,是企业探索和区块链行业发展的动力。

由此,特定领域本身的市场需求和切实的应用场景,成为了区块链发展的驱动力。

另一方面,李天白告诉锌链接,区块链技术和区块链并非是一种含义。

其称,区块链现在的精准定义是分布式账本技术,这一定义和数字货币的关系比较紧密。但账本的范畴更大,分为严格账本和宽泛账本,例如证照、证书也属于宽泛账本,严格账本是和币高度相关的,宽泛账本和证明关系更大。

而区块链技术则包括了主体认证技术,端到端技术和账本技术三个关键领域。核心主导的是去中心应用框架,也就是利用数学和密码学重构价值体系和数据管理体系。

“这个前景是深远的。对于网络安全,数据隐私保护,数字资产,数字交易,国家管理,企业管理都会带来巨大的变革机会。”

不同的定义角度,决定了不同区块链行业发展方向,也对应着不同的行业发展驱动力。

对于区块链分布式账本的定义而言,目前便可实现应用落地;对于区块链技术更宽泛的定义,要产生更深远的影响,或许需要依托5G时代其他先进技术的发展和配套基础设施的完善。

总而言之,驱动区块链行业发展的根本动力,朱幼平称,可以归结为“链改”,区块链改造世界的逻辑是对的。“因素还是人类追求创新、追求美好生活、追求进步的驱动力是永远存在的。”

成名于加密币却不依赖于加密货币,区块链行业正迈向一条专注技术研发,满足市场需求,与实体行业领域相结合应用的稳健之路。尽管比特币价格的上涨依托于区块链行业,但大多数企业和业内人士只是持观望态度,区块链行业进入理性发展时期。

没有人能准确预测比特币价格究竟能走多远,但区块链技术来的应用发展之路,大道小道,未来可期。

 

原题:比特币猛涨,但区块链一脸冷漠

©本文版权归“锌链接”所有

文:易柏伶

编辑:王巧

节约75%的带宽,让比特币更安全,核心开发者闭关1年憋大招

比特币的核心开发者Gregory Maxwell去年1月离开了Blockstream,专注于“深度协议工作”,现在他和其他几位开发者推出了一款名为“Erlay”的提案。

bitcoin 

节约75%的带宽 

Erlay是在本周二由英属哥伦比亚大学的Gleb Naumenko在Bitcoin Core开发者邮件列表中公布的。Naumenko是这样描述Erlay的:

“其基本概念是,信息只通过小部分连接点(只有8个输出连接)直接发送,不需要向所有对等节点公布每笔交易。通过双向保留通知集之间的每个连接上周期性运行设置的协调协议来实现进一步的中继……结果是:我们节省了节点需要消耗的一半带宽,允许几乎免费地增加连接,并且可以更好地抵御定时攻击。如果将出站节点计数增加到32,与当前协议相比,Erlay将节省75%的总带宽。”

比特币面临的一个重要问题是,节点需要消耗多少带宽才能保持同步。带宽是全节点运行所需承担的成本之一。比特币区块链目前的容量超过200 GB,这意味着下载完整的记录有时需要几天甚至几周的时间。

默认情况下,节点需要连接到大约8个其他节点,并从这些节点接收信息。Erlay的支持者说,如果这个数字增加到32,每个节点使用的带宽可以减少75%。

提高比特币的安全性和效率

Erlay将“diffusion”引入比特币,与当前的模式截然相反。Erlay的作者将当前的模式视为“version of flooding”。“如果采用更有效的模型,交易和区块可以在网络中传播。Erlay白皮书中写道:

“当前版本的比特币交易中继协议使用diffusion在节点之间传播消息,这是随机flooding的一种变体。flooding是一种协议,其中每个节点向它的每个对等节点公布它接收到的每笔交易。通知可以通过入站和出站链接发送。使用diffusion,对等点在公布接收到的交易之前可以注入随机延迟。这减少了定时攻击,并显著降低了发生碰撞的可能性(当两个节点同时通过它们之间的链接公布相同的交易时)。”

如果节点具有更强的互联性,特定的攻击向量也会显著减少。“定时攻击”(timing attack)是一个密码学概念,攻击者可以通过测量计算所需的时间来破坏密码协议。Erlay协议引入了随机计时,因此可以使比特币“更好地抵御定时攻击”。

如果Erlay协议最终被采纳,比特币网络的延迟和安全性都将得到改善。到目前为止,该协议还没有正式被写成比特币改进方案,但我们应该很快就能等到这一天。目前依然是开放讨论阶段。