Lykke & Nxchange to Launch New Tokenized Securities Exchange

Lykke, a Switzerland-based developer of a blockchain-enabled ”global marketplace for the free exchange of financial assets”, and Nxchange, a “regulated market / multilateral trading facility-licensed” Dutch securities exchange platform, have partnered to launch a Europe-based regulated tokenized securities exchange.

According to the announcement’s press release, the partnership will involve Lykke becoming an equity shareholder in Nxchange.

The development of the new securities exchange platform will be funded by Lykke.

Trading Cryptoassets, Equities, Bonds, Investment Products

Notably, the exchange will use proprietary blockchain-enabled “cryptoasset trading infrastructure” developed by Lykke. Nxchange is expected to contribute to the project by helping to “facilitate safe and regulated trading” on the new tokenized securities exchange.

Investors will be able access “a far greater and more diverse variety of financial assets” via the regulated platform, and the Lykke Nxchange wallet will be provided to users so that they can “access and store digital assets on the exchange.”

Any asset or security such as traditional equities, bonds, loans, and investment products may be “tokenized and traded” on Lykke and Nxchange’s blockchain-powered trading platform.

Moreover, the exchange will use “embedded” smart contracts to “guarantee the rights of all users” – which includes the distribution of dividends, “voting rights”, and “asset ownership.”

A “More Equitable And Democratic Financial World”

Nxchange has also partnered with ABN Amro, the third largest bank in the Netherlands, in order to develop a distributed ledger technology (DLT) based bank account. It will be used to settle transactions in “real-time against fiat currencies” – which will be held in the “custody of ABN Amro clearing bank.”

Commenting on the development of the tokenized securities exchange, Richard Olsen, the founder of Lykke Corp. and futures commission merchant, OANDA, said:

This is a historic day – not only for Lykke and Nxchange as companies – but for our broader shared vision that is targeted at a more equitable and democratic financial world. The increasing acceptance of digital assets and blockchain infrastructure as the technology of the future correctly comes with a greater emphasis on regulation and compliance. This partnership envisages to satisfy all these things while still bringing all the benefits of transformative technology to any individual who wishes to access or exchange anything of value.

“Real-Time, 24/7, Transparent” Capital Market Transactions

Marleen Evertsz, the founder and CEO of Nxchange, remarked: 

We believe that the time has come for a more modern form of capital market transactions: efficient, real-time, 24/7, transparent, and supported by compliance procedures that assure maximum security. We are delighted to partner with Lykke and to join forces in building the Next Generation Stock Exchange.

As CryptoGlobe reported recently, South Korea-based crypto exchange, Bithumb, and American crowdfunding platform, SeriesOne, have announced that they will be launching a US-based securities token exchange.

The exchange is expected to go live in early 2019.

Three Thai Siblings Accused of $24 Million Bitcoin Scam Plead ‘Not Guilty’

Three Thai citizens who are currently being prosecuted for allegedly swindling $24 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC) have pleaded “not guilty” in the Criminal Court of Bangkok, major Thai newspaper Bangkok Post reports Wednesday, Nov. 7.

During the hearings, Thai prosecutors accused the three defendants and six accomplices of defrauding 21-year-old Finnish investor Aamai Otava Saarimaa back in 2017. According to the investigation, he was persuaded to buy shares in Expay Software Co, invest in a gambling-focused crypto token Dragon Coin (DRG), and buy 500 million shares in DNA (2002) Co, which he consequently did by transferring crypto to the siblings’ wallets.

The prosecutors claim that after receiving the money, the Jaravijit family bought several blocks of land in Thailand. Saarimaa, in his turn, received no profit and later complained to the Thai Crime Suppression Division (CSD).

The three Jaravijit siblings, charged with conspiracy to defraud and money laundering, have recently pleaded “not guilty.”

Two of the siblings, Jiratpisit (a Thai actor known as “Boom”) and Supitcha, were arrested in August and then released on bail of $61,000 each. Their elder brother, Prinya Jaravijit, managed to flee to the U.S. in an attempt to avoid the charges.

However, in October, the Thai CSD revoked the Prinya Jaravijit’s passport — making his stay in the U.S. illegal — in order to force his return. After arriving in Bangkok, Jaravajit was then detained without bail and is currently being held in the Bangkok Remand Prison.

Bitmain a Day Away from Opening Antminer S15 Sales

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EOS Price Analysis – November 7

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EOS Price Analysis – November 7

eos-price-analysis-november-7

Eos, EOSUSD, Cryptocompare chartEOS Chart by TradingView

EOSUSD Price Medium-term Trend: Bullish

Supply zones: $9.00, $10.00, $11.00

Demand zones: $3.00, $2.00, $1.00

EOS is in a bullish trend in its medium-term outlook. The bulls have maintained consistency since 31st of October after breaking the 10-EMA and price has been on the north journey. The flags formation that brought back the bulls much stronger is also characteristic of the price in the medium term. The bullish railroad after the flag formation on 5th November brought back the bulls as EOSUSD was up at $5.79 in the supply area before the end of the session on 6th November.

Todays’ 4-hour opening candle at $5.78 was a bearish inverted hammer suggesting the bears’ return. This is creating another flag that will bring back the bulls. The price is above the two EMAs and the EMAs are fanned apart which implies strength in the trend,

As more candles formed and closed above the two EMAs due to the bullish pressure, a retest of $6.01 in the supply area may occur. This will be the fourth touch and a breakout is likely as the bulls continue the journey north.

EOSUSD Price Short-term Trend: Bullish

Eos, EOSUSD, Cryptocompare chartEOS Chart by TradingView

EOS continues in its bullish trend in its short-term outlook. The two EMAs have been acting as strong support for the bulls upward price movement in the short-term. The bullish 1-hour opening candle at $5.48 was on the 10-EMA and its second touch on the EMA led to the large engulfing candle at $5.51. This pushed EOUSUSD initially to $5.61 and later to $5.76 in the supply area.  Drawdown to the EMA due to the bears’ pressure occurred before the end of yesterday’s session.

Sustained bullish momentum after the 1-hour opening candle pushed the price up to $5.83 in the supply area as the retracement by the bears set in. The price is hovering around the 10-EMA but above the 50-EMA. A minor pullback may occur before uptrend continuation as the stochastic oscillator signal points down which imply downward price movement in the short-term.

 

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect that of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

It’s Hard to Short Crypto – And That’s Propping Up Prices, Study Finds

The contentious nature of the ecosystem around cryptocurrencies is partly what gives them value – academics call it “belief heterogenity.”

But discord and personal sentiment alone isn’t enough to keep prices above zero, according to research from Wang Chun Wei, Ph.D., a finance lecturer at the University of Queensland in Australia. According to Wei, if it was easier to bet against cryptocurrency prices through short positions – when someone borrows, then sells an asset with the expectation of buying it back at a lower price in an effort to make a profit on the difference  –  more of those assets would go to zero.

“Daily volatility of bitcoin is around four percent. This is too high to be simply based on informational changes in fundamental value,” Wei, who previously studied whether Tether’s controversial stablecoin, USDT, could be used to prop up the price of bitcoin, told CoinDesk.

As such, to investigate a better explanation for this observation, Wei looked at coins that most people would agree should be worth zero: cryptocurrencies believed to be either jokes or scams.

His latest investigation into crypto values, first published in October, confirmed a longstanding theory of finance – something called the resale option hypothesis – at least partly explains why cryptocurrencies are valued the way they are today.

The resale option hypothesis, which originated in 2003 from Princeton researchers Jose Scheinkman and Wei Xiong, argues that an asset tends to favor the most optimistic participants in a market (those with long bets) when two conditions persist: lots of disagreement about price and impediments to shorting the asset.

“Both conditions exist in the crypto market,” Wei said.

Without easy ways for people to short then, the market favors the long position.

Wei told CoinDesk:

“The hope that you can sell it to someone for more than what you paid for is an important factor driving cryptocurrency prices.”

What moves markets?

While Wei conducted his study on altcoins – particularly those with shady reputations – he reasoned that what he found should also explain some of the strangeness behind bitcoin’s price movements.

For much of its history, the exact reasons for bitcoin’s price moves haven’t been readily apparent – these fundamentals mysterious even to the most devout maximalist.

Wei studied three baskets of cryptocurrencies: mainstream coins, alleged scams and outright jokes.

The mainstream basket included seven cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin and XRP.

The list of less-than-savory coins included the Ponzi scheme-tied Bitconnect, Urocoin (originally pitched as a coin for farmers) and ParagonCoin (a cannabis industry everything-coin).

The joke-coin list featured dogecoin, RonPaulCoin and Useless Ethereum Token (UET) – the latter which wasn’t a true “scam” because its creator was forthright about his intention to take investor funds and run.

According to Wei, differences of opinion help illuminate why joke coins tend to hold on to their price a bit longer than cryptocurrencies identified as fraudulent. While fraudulent tokens might hold onto their value even as suspicions mount, that eventually changes as the hustle is definitively revealed.

“Once it becomes crystal clear that there’s no fundamental value, then you lose belief dispersion and the resale option value plummets,” Wei wrote in the paper.

But if a coin was made in jest – without maliciousness – who’s to say it couldn’t be viewed as valuable regardless? he reasoned.

Testing the value

So, how can this price effect be seen for the cryptocurrencies with bigger market capitalizations and wider network effects?

Resale option value is, in itself, difficult to pin down.

“There’s no precise way of calculating resale option value,” Wei wrote.

In his paper, he tested “the statistical significance of the interactions between turnover, traded price and realized volatility” to infer a value.

And based on that analysis, the hypothesis does apply to more mainstream coins.

“We find mainstream cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ethereum and [XRP], test positive to the resale option test,” Weid said. “This suggests that the price-volume relationship for mainstream cryptocurrencies exhibit speculative behavior, and thus it is unlikely that traded price for these cryptocurrencies reflect only fundamental value.”

Indeed, according to Wei, the market got something of a real-world test of this idea recently as bitcoin futures began to trade on major markets starting at the end of last year.

Wei told CoinDesk:

“Theoretically, the introduction of shorting instruments should reduce the resale option value, and consequently reduce bitcoin price (the latter which we can see clearly).”

Shorting options will soon expand for other cryptocurrencies as well. For example, Dydx is offering tokens for shorting, and crypto startup Compound has created a borrowing market that can be used for shorting coins.

If Wei’s analysis proves accurate, that could increase pressure on more of the tokens that have been able to maintain higher prices.

As Wei wrote in the paper, “Overall, we provide ample empirical evidence in support of anecdotal claims that cryptocurrency prices are supported by the hope of selling it to somebody else at a higher price.”

Price screen image via Shutterstock

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

Up $100: Bitcoin Price Indicators Grow Increasingly Bullish

Bitcoin (BTC) looks likely to inch higher toward $6,800 in the near-term, as the technical indicators have grown increasingly bullish in the last 24 hours.

Notably, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), which measures the speed and change of price movements, has jumped to 59.04 – the highest level since Sept. 4.

A reading above 50 indicates that bullish forces are acting on the security. So, it seems safe to say that the leading cryptocurrency is looking most bullish in two months.

At press time, BTC is changing hands at $6,510 on Coinbase, representing a $100 or 1.5 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.

The current position of the RSI is indeed encouraging for the bulls. Technical analysts, however, may argue that calling a bullish move on the basis of RSI alone is a risky business, as the indicator occasionally produces fake signals.

While that is true, in BTC’s case, other indicators are also biased toward the bulls. Hence, we can confidently place our trust in the RSI.

Daily chart

As can be seen above, BTC has cleared the stiff 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) hurdle today, having witnessed a bullish symmetrical triangle breakout over the weekend.

The 5-day and 10-day EMAs are trending north, indicating a bullish setup.

Further, BTC is currently trading above the upper Bollinger band of $6,500 and a breakout would be confirmed if prices see a UTC close above that level.

What’s more, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram is rising, indicating scope for further gains.

To sum up, both price action and the technical indicators are validating the bullish signals given by the RSI.

View

  • The odds are stacked in favor of a rally to $6,800 in the near-term.
  • A break above 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $6,642 on the 3-day chart would mark the beginning of the long-awaited bullish reversal, as discussed yesterday.
  • A UTC below the ascending (bullish) 10-day EMA of $6,400 would weaken the bullish pressure.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; Charts by Trading View 

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The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

Ethereum Ecosystem Continues To Swell: MetaMask Rolls Out New Features

MetaMask, the startup behind a world-renowned Ethereum client, recently announced an array of features aimed at bettering the consumer experience and bolstering the adoption levels of crypto assets.

ConsenSys-backed MetaMask Rolls Out Privacy Mode

During Ethereum’s earliest days, when the network will still amidst its “Frontier” phase, many users struggled with interacting with the blockchain’s smart contracts and decentralized applications (dApps), which were, simply put, a dime a dozen. Now, although the presence of dApps on the aforementioned blockchain hasn’t faded (far from in fact), innovators within the budding blockchain ecosystem have developed solutions to meet consumer concerns.

One such solution to the aforementioned issue has been created by MetaMask, a ConsenSys-backed crypto firm, which has since released an Ethereum client that shares the company name. The client, one of the first applications built solely for the Ethereum ecosystem, allows for its users to store, send, and receive Ether, along with facilitating users’ interactions with the “world computer,” as the Ethereum Network has been dubbed on occasion.

While MetaMask, which currently exists as a web browser add-on for Google Chrome, Opera, and Firefox, has gained boatloads of users, the piece of innovative software isn’t without its flaws.

Currently, through the use of a short line of code written in JavaScript, MetaMask allows any Ethereum-related website to garner pertinent user data, such as specific addresses and Ether balances, without prior warning. As put by Bobby Dresser, who works with MetaMask’s product & operations department, “when it comes to user privacy, this behavior is less than perfect.”

Although this isn’t an issue with well-respected Ethereum-focused applications and websites, like Augur, for example, malicious parties could use data it garners to “fingerprint, phish, or track” naive consumers, who may not be prepared for such an attack.

But now, as revealed in a blog post from Dresser, issued on November 5th, users of MetaMask will now have an option to enable “privacy mode,” which will require websites to prompt users before accessing private data.

This may sound like an irrelevant improvement, one that should be cast aside, but, many see this as a promising step towards the arrival of privacy-consciousness in the crypto space. Jameson Lopp, a long-time Bitcoin innovator, has been at the forefront for the fight for personal privacy and safety in the “surveillance age,” especially in regards to those affiliated with crypto. And although he may not be an overt supporter of Ethereum, his attention to detail when it comes to privacy isn’t something that should be disregarded in this nascent industry, which can be rife with bad actors, malicious players, and the like.

MetaMask Hits 1.3 Million Downloads: Aims For More Adoption With Mobile Client

As reported by NewsBTC previously, MetaMask recently surpassed a mammoth milestone, with the startup’s application now claiming a jaw-dropping 1.3 million downloads to its name. This news, revealed by one of the startup’s occasional status updates, indicates that Ethereum’s sphere of influence continues to swell, even amid bearish market conditions and cries for lower lows.

However, in spite of the aforementioned now-breached milestone, the thirst for growth from MetaMask’s 18 full-time employees has seemingly remained unquenched.

Just recently, at Devcon4, the Olympics of Ethereum, so to speak, MetaMask representatives revealed that the firm is poised to launch a mobile application, which was a long time coming. This newfangled client should hopefully fill the growing gap for smartphone-based crypto applications, especially in regards to dApps and smart contracts.

So watch out, MetaMask seems to be dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s in preparation for the resurgence of the Ethereum ecosystem, which may be denoted by crypto’s next bull run.

Featured Image from Metamask

王峰对话易理华楼霁月:STO、资管、量化交易…揭开区块链投资9大真相

王峰对话易理华、楼霁月


“今天所有区块链Top项目里,大部分是没有这些价值底层的原教因素的。现在的区块链根本就没有所谓的2.0、3.0、4.0,都是忽悠的。”

近期,火星特训营第一期学员在日本完成结业游学。期间,火星财经发起人王峰和了得资本易理华、Tokenmania数字资产管理集团楼霁月进行了私密炉火对话,易理华和楼霁月分别分享了自己在投资和资产管理领域的深度见解。

精彩观点如下:





以下为王峰对话易理华楼霁月内容,由火星财经(ID:hxcj24h)整理


如何看待市场遇冷?


王峰:我觉得我进这个市场以后,很快看见市场开始凉了,我隐隐地感觉最近这几个月,尤其是这两个月以来,做一级市场的投资公司都比较安静,我感觉易理华你这两个月的声音反而不如之前四五月份。但是楼霁月的生意却越来越多,二级市场包括量化,口碑也好,生意也好。就眼下这个大的市场环境下,你们各自是怎么看的?怎么面对这个问题?


易理华:实际上因为市场的关系,这几个月中国Tokenfund大家都不投了。我们内部也有一个调整,我算了一下,我们都是自有资金投资,今年真金白银投了6个亿出去,可能相对于以太还可以,但如果以法币计价,我们将近亏损一半。 因为我们算是这个行业里面为数不多的真正用自己的钱去投入、支持区块链项目的,但很多项目出问题,令我们很失望,所以我们在一级市场就减少了投资这一块。

王峰:咱们资管到底有多大规模?


楼霁月:因为我们两个真的是信奉数字货币的,其实我们两个人身上的钱加起来可能就只有20万,用来交交房租什么的,我们一直是以数字货币计价的。资管的规模可能一直是在4万个BTC左右。当然现在业务线拉长了,加上借贷OTC,做市什么的可能要大很多,资管一直都是这么些。



数字资产管理的门道


王峰:有很多人对资管业务是怎么做的感兴趣,我们在座的人可能是工科背景多一些,有的互联网出身的多一些,我想能不能给我们讲一讲数字货币的资管,包括量化交易里的一些门道? 


楼霁月:我有自营和外部团队,自营有五个团队,我也是一个母基金,对外投资其他的量化团队,判断的标准就是以我自营资金的表现为基准,只要你高于我,我就留下你,在我的Portfolio里保留你,低于我你就被淘汰了。


王峰:你自营的那一部分回报到什么程度,有标尺吗?


楼霁月:其实是不太好说的,但可以透露一下。从策略上来说,策略有不同,单纯的现货套利,今年可能可以做到20%左右,如果加上期现,跨期可以做到更高。但这个不能够算上USDT新的一些波动,因为如果你算上它的话,它原先溢价高的时候好做,但是它如果低于USDT的价格,一些跨期套利一定是会浮亏的。



这是纯Arbitrage,如果算上Market Making,他们可以是同一个市场的Premium,就是一个此消彼长的过程。这两个肯定是叠加在一起的,如果你的团队够好的话,Market Making应该会比Arbitrage要高一点,但是它的市场容量非常有限,这种算是中高频策略。但是它市场容量是有限的,如果再加上CTA那就不一样,CTA是做多β,在极端环境之下就会有一个比较好的表现。


还有一些就是高频的,交易的原理就是我的交易比你价格变化的速度快。比如说,我赌你市场的高抛低吸,市场价格的变动可能是在2、3分钟级,高频可以做到比如说秒级,1分钟以下的我们默认定义成高频,它变化速度就比你的趋势上面的区间要短,所以它大概收入高于它的亏损率,就是赚钱的。


它的回报率很高,但是容量非常低,而且它对于交易手续费特别敏感。因为我们的自营团队做这个事情已经快两年了,我们与数十个交易所保持着良好的做市商合作关系,别人的手续费不像我这么有竞争力,他们高频也没办法做到我这么高。还有一些其他的策略,但是差不多这三种用的应该是最多的,这是从策略上来讲。


从管理角度来讲,国内一些传统市场和基金的leader或者是总经理,也都愿意以各种形式加入到TAMC中来。我每星期会办一个会去观察它的净值,我们有一套Private Broker的系统,接了每一个Fund的净值,当它低于它回撤的Limitation,我就会叫停。有异常或者表现不好我也会叫停,会有一些公共手段,我的Portfolio Manager全权代表我,但我有一票否决权。


王峰:有两个数字能不能给我们分享,一个是现在基金里一共多少合伙人?除了你自营当标尺的业务以外,你可以一起合作的partner,你估计中国现在有多少在做资管服务的这些team?


楼霁月:TAMC内部现有若干个合伙人,他们均在各自的领域有所建树,考虑到TAMC还在高速发展期,我们愿意接受更多的有能之士以合伙人的身份加入TAMC。我再说另外一个数字,我投过的外部资管团队超过40家,推过来材料的超过100家,中国现有的资管团队保守估计现在可能有2000家以上。 



熊市的投资逻辑


王峰:现在市场环境或许比困难,如果你从投资角度来看,现在还有哪些项目、哪些领域值得去投? 


易理华:不管是互联网时代还是移动互联网时代,投资是一个万里挑一的事情,只不过在去年那个大风口的时候,所有的猪都在飞,所以今天投资又回归到“万里挑一”的常识。以前我们可能是遇到10个项目大概投3个项目,现在可能遇到20个项目,投1个项目。我认为只要一个行业在,就一定就会有投资机会,但是投资逻辑和投资方法肯定要发生变化。


王峰:说到投资,我算是比较早进入软件行业,后来2000年以后就看到互联网的机会,自己去做互联网生意。我对投资的印象,第一阶段是1999到2000年左右,那时候只要你从国外MBA念书回来,公司加个.com,一定拿到风投。第二阶段是2009、2010年移动量爆发的初期,只要你是BAT出来的,还带了几个不错的有业务或者技术上逻辑的人,也能拿来换钱。


那么说回数字货币区块链好像也会经历一个时期,但我总感觉还没有到,总体来讲大家对区块链理解确实太少,我觉得日本也没到像他们说的那么热闹。是不是整个区块链大热的时期还没有完全到?易理华你怎么看?


易理华:其实现在还只是一个很早期阶段,互联网发展了30年,真正到宽带这个基础设施服务提升以后,互联网才能真正跑游戏和电商的,移动互联网也是,智能手机的成熟和4G的普及才促进了移动互联网的大爆发。所以区块链其实是有一个原教核心价值,比特币定义了一种去中心化的资产形态今天所有区块链Top项目里,大部分是没有这些价值底层的原教因素的。比特币是没有募资的,是社群生态发展起来的,这些项目募资就会有利益诉求在里面,甚至团队70、80的持有量,它违背了区块链去中心化社区共识以及所有这一切的宗旨,所以现在的区块链根本就没有所谓的2.0、3.0、4.0,都是忽悠的。



到今天为止,这个行业的人投来投去都还是为了多挣几个比特币,还停留在1.0阶段,或者说1.1阶段。打个比方,区块链还是处于1994、1995年的那个互联网阶段。所以我认为真正要突破的是到2.0阶段,达成下一个共识。下一个比特币什么时刻来临,也许是现在的某个项目进化出来,也许是全新的物种,谁也不知道。来临以后,谁能抓住下一个比特币,谁就真正抓住了大势。



区块链金融落地,便是社会最强的武器


王峰:我自己反复思考,互联网改变了信息流,当然那时候也提到扁平化、民主化,但是从中本聪创造比特币以后,我们叫做价值互联网。但事后再来看,我感觉区块链离金融华尔街更近,所以会不会现在整个区块链阶段,更多的价值兑现还是在偏向金融行业,而不是在我们看到的区块链应用?因为我觉得现在公链可能有一个很大的野心,但其实这两年很多人已经去尝试落地应用了。那么应用的这些创业项目,你觉得现在时机到了吗?


易理华:两个维度,第一个是区块链跟金融的关系。其实人类历史那么多次的进步,很大程度上跟金融有关,比如像当时公司制的第一次诞生,东印度公司模式去海外拓展,包括中国的改革开放很多内容,也是金融模式的一个改革,美国也是通过金融控制权发展起来的。所以其实金融业是社会最强的武器,所以如果区块链已经在金融行业能发生改变,那是一个很大的进步了。互联网是传递信息,区块链因为信任方式的改变,传递了资产和价值,我认为在金融行业还只是刚刚开始,把金融行业做透,其实已经很大了。


当然在别的行业里,从社会的角度来讲,区块链不能仅仅是一个金融产业,实际落地有什么应用?金融+产业才是关键,在区块链上面,我认比较看重内容、物联网、存储等方向。区块链改变了三个东西,第一个是数据所有权,第二个是激励机制,第三个是信任底层。内容是最好的一个方向,就是激励给社会带来进步。


在出版行业,最初出版社利润是拿90%,作者拿10%,但是大部分出版社还是亏的,因为它的经济模型不行。到了亚马逊电子书时代,亚马逊拿70%,作者拿30%。再到得到App时代,罗振宇拿50%,作者拿50%。但到了区块链的时代,真正的贡献者拿90%以上,贡献者包括创作者、内容提供者、传播者、评论者,这都是可以追溯来进行激励的。区块链就是经济模型改变,从一个绝对中心化的出版社转变成一个多中心,认为这内容行业的革命。


包括物联网时代,云储存这样一些行业,包括游戏,我认为都有很巨大的前景。只不过是技术进展、研发需要一点点时间,基础设施还没有成熟。整个社会从各国政府,大企业都意识到区块链的绝大前景和价值,所以我作为行业多年从业者,肯定要承担一定风险去积极投它。

 国内二级市场吹牛比例和1CO泡沫差不多


王峰:现在国内做二级市场的大部分都是什么样的人?他们都是什么资质?


楼霁月:大家有时候说一级市场空气币很多,假设每个二级市场Fund都能发一个空气币,二级市场的空气币比例就跟一级市场差不多。只要是做工程的、能够做策略实现的,就可以说自己是一个量化团队。团队里面标配一个工程师,加上一个早期在市场里面搬砖的人,就可以说自己是一个具有多年交易背景或者哪个交易团队背景,而且年化300%的团队,这是多么可怕的一件事。其实它在我们的分类上,是单纯主观交易的团队,拿着LP的钱去赌方向。


王峰:像你这么有经验,会不会曾经也遇到过一些问题?


楼霁月:我最近清掉了很多外部资管团队,因为7、8、9月出现了很多极端事件,比如说Okex分摊,还有大的下影线和上影线,只要风控没做好,都会出现巨额亏损。这种极端行情也检验了很多团队,只要对这个市场交易规则不熟悉,对风控没有任何经验,回撤做不好,没有Broker系统和风控程序的,都不值得投。

 

有些人曾经问过我,交易难道不是一个零和游戏,有人赚就有人亏?这件事情从整体100%交易者来说确实是这么一回事,但如果只做中性策略就不该如此,我做的是现货多角套利、期现套利、跨期套利、Market making策略,这些应该都是市场里面相对无风险的溢价。市场交易量在下降的过程中,能够投的团队肯定越来越少,所以缩小投资量是一定的,也应该是正确的一个做法。

 

我当时是被“骗”进来的

王峰:易理华,你能够讲讲你在过去区块链项目投资里,不算以太坊和EOS,国内所投的项目里,你觉得回报最好的是哪个项目? 

易理华:比如量子和唯链。早期我们主要在二级市场投资,投的国外项目像恒星涨了上千倍。国内项目像量子最高有1000倍,Vechain唯链,我们是主要投资方,最高回报有200倍,当然也有其他几十倍的。在二级投资的以太坊也有上百倍回报,NEO也是。那个时代真的就是进入的时机很好,以及一直在上升通道,也没过早下车。


王峰:当时进这个行业,是什么契机? 

易理华:其实很有意思,我当时是被骗进来的。我最早做古典投资,有个人跑过来跟我融资,他说每年有1000万的利润,但没有财务报表。所有人听到这一件事情,就会想是不是骗子?但他的背景,名校名企出来,怎么可能是骗子。

 

他说自己挖比特币,那是我第一次接触。他说挖比特币收益是年化80%,当时我熟悉P2P,15%以上回报的都是骗子,因为模型不成立。我说兄弟你别这么骗我,给我30%回报就行了,当时给了他六十几万,那会比特币才1000块钱多点,后来真的每天(挖矿)收到一到两个比特币,当时比特币还在涨,我一直都盯着回报看。

 

当时2015年在四川开始挖矿,后来这团队也获得沈波分布式资本投资,之后他们一直在以太坊,以太坊创始人那会我在上海见过,Vitalik当时在上海很屌丝,就一个小孩子。当时以太坊2块钱,他说可以涨到8块。当时我想怎么可能涨四倍,所以当时没买。过了一段时间,以太坊涨到12块钱,涨了6倍,我就拍脑袋了,那会如果投100万赚600万,当时对我们来说是很大的事情。后来以太坊到15—20块钱,我就开始买了一部分,后来我还挖以太坊,就这么一个情况。



最遗憾的是币安和波场

王峰:你觉得最遗憾的事情是?

易理华:去年有两个项目我有点遗憾。一个是币安,一个是波场。当时我很自信,去年那一波比较牛的项目都投了,当初知道币安感觉还挺好的。2017年的时候我投资已经非常不错了,所以当时还想布局产业的事情,我第一个布局是让楼霁月楼霁月:最开始我是他的秘书去做二级市场,这是我很重要的一个决策。第二个重要的事情是想布局交易所。


我看过赵长鹏和何一的经历,觉得挺好,那个时候我本来建议我带入币圈的一个人做交易所,他说币安挺好的,别自己做,建议我一起投他们得了。但身边有个很信任的人说了一些建议,后来我又没投了。波场也是,有个人老说孙宇晨是怎么不靠谱,蛮子也算是我很熟悉的,他其实极力推荐孙宇晨。但还是那个原因,可能主要我也没见过他们两个,所以这两个企业(没投)可能就是比较遗憾吧,以后总结出来的经验就是,团队和创始人还是得自己去熟悉以及好的项目多少都参与点


 

王峰:可以错过OK,也可以错过一次火币,但是不能错过币安。

 

易理华:我认为币安目前来讲是我在区块链里面看到最优秀的团队之一。很专注很有效率,战略也非常清晰。

王峰:我有个圈内好友几个月前在一起喝酒,有一天他很惆怅地跟我说,再过几年,顶多只有一个人还能在这桌上吃饭,说的是吴忌寒,他评价吴忌寒靠挖矿赚很多钱,加上还有野心勃勃的比特币现金,加上吴忌寒手里有足够多的钱在AI上发力,他觉得今天所谓区块链,只有吴忌寒能笑得更长远,很多这些交易所可能也会被新模式超越,你觉得这话有没有道理?

 

易理华:我对吴忌寒持保留态度,从我投资人的角度来看他肯定非常聪明,但其实是抵不过大势的。现在区块链在1.0时代,如果想跳出比特币这个框挺难的。我认为矿机里面没有太深壁垒,这很核心。我们都是那个风口上的猪,比特大陆也是那个风口上的猪,可能没有想象中那么强大。

 

楼霁月:我对吴忌寒的评价和他是两样,其实讲到币安,他们评价CZ赵长鹏,“He moves so fast”,我也觉得是这样。这个市场,如果说三五年之后还有一个华裔屹立不倒,我认为是赵长鹏

 

我和吴忌寒一起吃过饭,他应该是一个很聪明的人。我认为BCH和IPO两件事都是非常聪明的,把手里能够打的牌打到最好。而且从任何角度来说,包括政治、经济,任何市场都不会欢迎一个中国人占算力主位的一个东西去他们国家发行ETF。我是做投行的,如果我的财务报表2017年达到了高峰,我什么时候上市最划算?当然是2018年!我认为他还是很聪明的,不过AI这东西现在谁也说不准。

STO是区块链眼下最大的机会么?

 

王峰:咱们说说今年的情况,现在Security Token这个机会有多大?因为我也做投资,现在做公链、做安全项目的太多了,我在美国和一个做安全的哥大教授聊过,他大概从2月份开始陆续融资,都7月底融了快5000万美金,美国有好几个教授创业项目,但这样背景的项目眼下都不好融资,你觉得现在最大的机会是不是STO?

易理华:说真的,我感觉这批教授出来做的项目应该是有一帮人操作的。今年2月到5月,中国有一些人在美国默默包装这些项目,我们现在发现这好像是个巨大的坑,所以我觉得美国教授确实是狠狠地收割中国的TokenFund,我们也被收割了。如果立马上(交易所),其实按照中国的投资逻辑来说是没错的,但是美国人真的奔着2、3年去了,这项目都凉了,而且这些美国教授也没什么责任心,就被忽悠来站个台,所以这种行为我是真的深恶痛绝。

 

现在我认为STO对加密货币行业有帮助作用,但我不会想all in这块,因为本来全世界优质的互联网企业也就很少,值得投资的是非常少的,就投头部的,腾讯、阿里、谷歌从上市就一直投,就够了,其他企业大部分都会死掉。

 

STO也是一些资产类的项目,投资价值有多少?这里面有一部分有,但我认为很重要的一点是它打通了这个法币世界主流资金跟加密货币的资金通道,投了STO之后,法币可以和加密货币兑换,这其实是很有意义的一件事情,但我对STO持保留态度,是百里挑一、万里挑一的投资态度,从投资角度我们要谨慎。


王峰:从纯粹投资来看,似乎也没法回到像去年9月全球1CO那么澎湃的阶段。STO我觉得还是被高度监管的,可能有利用资源的项目其实非常有限,投资机会是不是没那么大?

易理华:肯定的,因为我觉得去年就是一个风口上猪,这个时代已经永远不可能再回来了,除非是区块链2.0时代到来有一个巨大的突破性和爆炸性所以我认为STO投资现在也比较成熟,韩国投资者高点接了那么多,他们也冷静下来了,所以这个市场里,STO也好、稳定币也好,我认为不可能再有那个时候的情况。


 

楼霁月:我现在和一些稳定币也有合作,其实目前STO不只有美国SEC监管之下的Security token,有些团队就在离岸一个小岛上布局,他们超过了美国证监会的监管范围,也有合规投资者,门槛很低,并不是完全按照类证券来管理,所以还是有很大的一个投资空间。

 

其实我想问大家,怎么样算是收益倍数比较高?真的要像量子这样500倍才算高吗?那肯定不会有了。我觉得5倍、10倍也算是高的吧,回过头看PE、VC行业的投资回报,比如说一个A轮企业如果IPO,这个回报应该很好。

 

我认为STO的一个实质是,如果有好的做市商,有好的投资流量进去,解决了IPO前面的BCD轮创业公司所有的流动性问题。比如一个项目现在估值是20亿美金,但是它的用户数量和它布局的业务范围可能才到10%,它在资本市场上可能还有10倍、20倍、50倍市场空间,这样一个项目发成STO,又比如说一年前的摩拜上STO它有流动性了,会不会有投资人或机构去抢?一定是有一个需求的,它也没有大家想象的那么严格,不只有美国SEC监管之下的才叫STO

我们跟欧洲最大的公募平台Token Market的人交流时问他们最想从中国得到什么?我以为他会说中国市场投资者,他说是好的项目,他想要B轮、C轮的好现金流的企业。包括纳斯达克也在看STO市场,大家都不想放过这块肥肉,只是这件事情跟Token关系并不大,它跟证券和股权的这些公司的关系更大而已

王峰:我在美国见过纳斯达克亚太主席,他和我聊了很多久,刚好是小牛电动车上市那天,他们对中国市场也非常关注。我能感觉到传统这些股票交易所,其实对新兴事的理解远比我们想象得深,现在来看,这些传统交易所和数字货币似乎已经连得越来越紧密,包括纽交所,我听说也是一样的。

 

楼霁月:不止交易所,比如HRT每一年要挣几十亿上百亿,但可能在数字货币放了几千万美金,但这个回报率太高了,华尔街最保守的量化对冲基金Two Sigma也进来了。

王峰:像STO能有3倍、5倍回报就非常好了,如果有足够多的中等规模的公司真的能在STO接棒成功,那是一个很了不起新现象,会引来投资新反应,你觉得呢?

 

楼霁月:我感觉这件事情应该马上要发生了。STO跟区块链的关系浅,但跟Security的关系深,它应该更是一个PE、VC的相关人会感兴趣的事。美国tZERO募了好大一笔STO,后来的钱也是为了打算做STO交易所的,他们背后也有上市公司,这件事情跟token没啥关系,只是让股权有更好的流动性。


王峰:去年都是早期项目拿钱,那么STO出来以后,初创公司好像是没什么机会了,因为只有做到一个level以后,才可能像你说的,对标古典投资A、B、C和D轮。把STO当成PE、VC来算,那么初创公司再做区块链,是不是融资机会越来越小了?


易理华:不会,它是两个并存的市场。STO也确实有它的价值和场景,原来的市场一直会存在。如果我真遇到什么特别好的项目,我还是会跟朋友一起来投资,只不过那个不理性的投资节奏已经过去了,不可能什么项目都能融资,大部分STO项目肯定会死掉。如果不是一个长期投资者,我是交易者我当然可以投,什么时刻退出看你的判断。所以说STO就是百里挑一,从交易者来讲,就是寻找议价空间,控制风险。



全球市场的流动性


王峰:看全球市场,除了美国中国以外,经过大家求证,韩国、台湾、东南亚市场冷热程度还跟我们四五月份一样,稍稍慢了半拍。也有人说项目方全球割韭菜,现在开始往那几个地方割了,你觉得现在是这样吗?


易理华:对,像FCoin最近在日本做了一个挖矿交易所,因为还得生存,只能去寻找一些市场机会。我认为东南亚或者日韩,相对中国还是好一点,因为他们市场稍微慢一拍,没中国那么多模式。国内市场经过这么多折腾,可能确实投资者更低潮一点。


王峰:数字货币发展到现在,很多人会觉得看不懂了,有些人觉得最好的方式还是趁着比特币现在低谷的时候,多买比特币长期持有,有些人甚至都休假去了。


易理华:我觉得这是一个资产配置的概念,如果加密资产是未来家庭和企业的资产配置的3%,我认为加密资产是会超过10万亿美金的市场。这样的话数字货币还有50倍的上涨通道,这里面比特币肯定又是必配的一部分,剩下的我认为还是有一部分投资机会跑得过比特币,每个人的眼光和看法不一样。从资产配置的角度来讲,这两个市场现在开始没有巨大突破性的话,稳住比较好,不要折腾。


王峰:你现在投资还投ETH吗,还有项目要ETH吗?


易理华:比例少了很多,类ETH它是一个功能性的产品。我们一直跟别人讲,黄金永远都是黄金,它不需要升级的。但比如手机这种功能性产品,每年升级一次才有价值,功能性的东西就是这样子,如果你升级速度不够,就没有价值了。以太坊需要升级,没有升级,价值就下降了,所以现在大部分项目方都是投USDT计价了,毕竟项目方经营成本都是法币算的。


自由问答:


Q1:其实我一直在思考,熊市做投资其实不容易,目前来说交易所还能不能投?第二个问题,EOS会不会东山再起?然后第三个问题,熊市挖矿是不是一门好生意


易理华:先说EOS,EOS是我们以前比较重仓的一个项目,从第一天1CO我们就开始投资了,到目前为止它确实是整个区块链行业社区最热的一个项目之一。但是投资要抛开喜不喜欢,它是一个独立的经济行为,讲的是投资回报。从项目模型看,90%的流通盘,如果有大事,EOS很难支撑它的大规模爆发,上一步爆发是有资金炒作进来的,30多涨到140多,这么高的流通盘和它的盈利退出压力,所以它大规模爆发很难,它也只能跟着大势走,独立走出行情的可能性我觉得很小。


我认为交易所还是一个巨大的机会,过去流行了好几波不同类型,分叉币、平台币、美国教授项目,现在稳定币和STO又来了。交易所作为产业最上游的核心环节,依旧有机会。我也在努力寻找这个方向新的机会,非常关注交易所。但是这方面要冷静,不能广撒网,要挑那么一两个重点的投资。



熊市挖矿,我认为决定回报有几个因素:首先是电费成本,如果你的电费4、5毛,别挖了。如果电费2毛,我觉得还是比较稳定的一个回报。我自己其实不太喜欢挖矿这个生意的,如果我挖矿,为什么不直接买比特币?简单省心。挖矿其实有很多风险的,矿场倒闭、买矿机被骗、矿机出问题、矿机升级淘汰,所以我觉得它是一个高风险低回报的事情


Q2:现在区块链创业者有像曹辉宁这种可能年逾6旬,但小时候也是一个天才,当然也有像孙宇晨这样的90后,按道理来讲创业者20多岁应该是精力最活跃的期间,但现在区块链不分年龄都在创业。所以两位见过那么多的创业者,你认为这个行业里面具备哪些特质的人有可能会起来,站在10年的角度可能一定会有个BAT出来?另外,两位有什么人生理想?


易理华:第一个问题是创业者的事,因为我做投资比较多一点,对人性有一些理解。因为今天距离我2008年大二第一次创业刚好10年,已经是创业老兵了,也总结出来一些规律,我觉得创业者最重要的有几个特点:


第一个是有担当,你很难想象世界上绝大部分人是没有担当的。每一次创业不管你设计得再好,都有九九八十一难,最核心的是有担当有毅力。


第二个在于悟性,这个可能是有天赋的,有些人就是有悟性,就是过一段时间见到他就有进展和成长。我认为很多人起点都差不多,但后来发展的有区别就是因为都要有悟性。


第三个在于专业匹配度,我认为这是每个人的基因和每个人的方向,男怕入错行,女怕嫁错郎,就是讲方向性的问题,我认为这个是一个创业者很重要的特征。


然后讲梦想,我们公司是靠投资和资产管理起来的一个公司,从目标上来说,我们并没有想成为区块链领域的红杉资本,我们想成为区块链领域的阿里巴巴。我们有很长的路走,也许是20年,也许是50年,我们就朝这个方向走。 


楼霁月:什么样的创业者好?从我自己角度来说,反正我觉得资历太浅、太年轻了不行,太优秀了也不行,一路很顺的这种肯定不行,遇到什么事情过不去。 我的终极信仰,是做一个好人。在没进入这个行业之前,我从小到大很顺,进入了这个行业就开始有黑稿,也遇到一些事情。你只有很强大,才可以做一个好人我经常分享杨绛《我们仨》那篇文章里很经典的一段,在这世上做一个好人实在不易。我觉得做人,如果你自己不强大就很容易被别人欺负,你稍微强大一点,还是很容易被别人欺负。



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对话嘉宾简介

楼霁月


Tokenmania创始人。管理规模超过40,000BTC,二级市场业务主要包括自营量化交易、二级市场母基金、借贷、OTC、做市商,以及债券发行、承销和做市,金融衍生品的设计发行定价、承销和做市。


易理华


LD Group董事长、了得资本创始人。主要定位为区块链领域的基础设施服务,包括5个业务方向:了得资本负责战略布局和重大投资、猎人资本负责孵化投行和创新投资、乾景集团负责品牌营销服务、几维金服负责区块链金融和钱包、天机阁负责区块链技术研究和转化。

火星特训营是火星生态孵化出的区块链顶级培训品牌,致力于成为区块链领域的黄埔军校。火星特训营将联合火星生态旗下的“共识实验室”,为学员与12个顶级投资方建立链接。火星特训营的主要课程涉及项目、技术、资本、国际市场和社区运营五大方面,为每期学员提供资金与资源的深度孵化与指导。

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Israel’s Central Bank ‘Not Recommended’ to Issue Own Digital Currency

An Israeli study group exploring digital currency options has recommended that the country’s central bank not issue its own token, a press release confirmed Nov. 6.

The interdepartmental team, set up in November 2017 by the governor of the Bank of Israel to “examine the issue of central bank digital currencies [CBDCs],” revealed its findings in a full report this week.

“Central banks around the world are examining the possibility of issuing digital currency and/or using distributed technologies in the payment systems, but no advanced economy has yet issued digital currency for broad use,” it summarizes, adding:

“The team does not recommend that the Bank of Israel issue digital currency in the near future. It is necessary to continue examining the field and to follow developments around the world before there are proper grounds for a decision to recommend issuing digital currency.”

The result comes as little surprise for the banking sector, multiple jurisdictions including the European Union similarly deciding this year that the atmosphere was not conducive to launching a central bank digital asset for the time being.

In a communique in September, the European Central Bank highlighted the continued popularity of cash and a lack of full risk assessment as key factors behind its decision.

However, a Cointelegraph analysis of the possibilities for CBDCs showed that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been actively looking into the technology, as well as the Bank of Canada and Sweden’s central bank.

Israel has continued to adopt a proactive approach to cryptocurrency more generally this year, with the Supreme Court in February preventing banks from deliberately jettisoning ties with industry businesses.

Hackers Breach Popular Web Analytics Site to Target Crypto Exchange

Cryptocurrency exchange Gate.io was apparently the target of hackers who compromised a widely used web analytics platform this week.

According to a report from internet security firm ESET on Tuesday, bad actors compromised popular, Ireland-based web analytics site StatCounter, in an attempt to steal bitcoin from the exchange’s customers.

The attackers managed to inject malicious code into the script of StatCounter webpage, having also registered a domain very similar to the official one. The fake domain swapped two letters from the original to form “StatConuter”, which can be difficult to spot while scanning for unusual activity, says ESET, adding that the domain had previously been suspended in 2010 for association with abusive behaviour.

StatCounter is used by more than two million websites, according to its own figures, and it provides statistics on billions of web hits daily.  The fake account managed to get picked up by a number of sites, although Gate.io seems to have been the only target.

The report states that the script targets a specific uniform resource identifier (URI): “myaccount/withdraw/BTC.”

“It turns out that among the different cryptocurrency exchanges live at time of writing, only Gate.io has a valid page with this URI. Thus, this exchange seems to be the main target of this attack,” it concludes.

The URI is notably used by Gate.io to transfer bitcoin from its own account to an external bitcoin address, according to the report.

The script automatically replaces the user’s bitcoin address with one belonging to the attackers, the report indicates.

As the malicious server generates a new bitcoin address each time a visitor loads the StatConuter script, “it is hard to see how many bitcoins have been transferred to the attackers,” the researchers say.

After being notified by ESET about the breach, Gate.io announced Wednesday that it “immediately removed” the StatCounter service from its site, and stressed that the users’ funds are “safe.”

CoinMarketCap data indicates that Gate.io is the 38th largest crypto exchange globally by adjusted trading volume.

Hacker image via Shutterstock 

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.